Edhat Staff
PHD Director Dr. Van Do-Reynoso
By edhat staff
The Public Health Department states data suggests physical distancing and public health directives have slowed the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19).
Santa Barbara County Public Health Department (PHD) Director Dr. Van Do-Reynoso gave a COVID-19 update to the Board of Supervisors on Monday morning.
Dr. Do-Reynoso provided graphs showing the hospitalization rate including the intensive care unit (ICU) patients. The number of ICU patients continues to hover around 18. Regarding the ages of each confirmed case, the data shows a good spread throughout each age group which Dr. Do-Reynoso stated the sentiment that COVID-19 only affects older people is not accurate. The graph shows 40% of COVID-19 cases in the county are between ages 50-69, 35% are ages 30-49, and 14% are ages 18-29.
Los Angeles County has released a new model projecting the infection rate this summer, which PHD has been reviewing. According to the model, if current social distancing methods were reduced to pre-order levels, 95.6% of Los Angeles County residents will have been infected by August 1. If the social distancing methods are maintained, 29.8% will be infected and if the current levels are increased, only 5.5% of residents will be infected.
The main takeaway from the current data and projected modeling remains the same, social distancing works and is working in conjunction with the public health directives. The reduction in physical distancing behavior may lead to rapid increases in cases and high demand for hospital services beyond the current capacity.
Dr. Do-Reynoso stated the current Executive Order by California Governor Gavin Newsom was issued on March 19 and is in effect until further notice. Under that order, the local government can be more restrictive, but it cannot be less restrictive.
Staying at home and practicing physical or social distancing will allow the local hospital system to remain intact and to provide services to all who need advanced level of care.
More information on individual COVID-19 cases can be found at https://publichealthsbc.org/dashboard/
Also, look at all the conspiracy theories being spread on the internet and by organizations like Fox News and OANN
Were they tested? Also, I hope they will be ok
If you read too many comments on the internet you will become insane. That is well known.
PUG – just be thankful that we don’t have people like Idaho’s Bundy family here. It really seems that most people in our community are taking this extremely seriously and have made many sacrifices and worked hard to do the right thing.
Peter Lorre?
Pug, yes. Girlfriend tested positive. Boyfriend has not tested as it is presumed he has same as girlfriend as he has been isolating for 2.5 weeks in apartment. So far both are very ill but fine. They are young and in good health. Hoping for good outcome.
Anybody who thinks that social distancing isn’t working, and will not continue to work, is either not paying attention, or pursuing a ridiculous, ignorant agenda.
The modeling continues to be wrong and always presents a worst case scenario
MAC – or they’re thinking for themselves and questioning some of the logic behind the government’s decisions. It’s OK to disagree with the effectiveness of something, free country and all that…..
Maybe the Solstice Festival can be put off until December and we can have a Winter Solstice fête instead. Of course that would put it only a few days before Christmas (or “Holiday,” or whatever they’re calling it these days), but that would just add to the fun! And…do we even dare speculate on what’s going to happen to Fiesta?
REX – if we’re still under this stay at home thing in August, I would say we’d have MUCH more to worry about than Fiesta. But yeah, cancelling Fiesta would suck for a lot of people!
7 men fined $1000 each for “violating shelter-in-place orders” in Santa Cruz. THIS is wrong. Look at the photo for starters…… https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/men-trip-to-Santa-Cruz-fined-violating-lockdown-15197083.php
I really don’t believe anybody can say that social distancing is working or not without ALL of the pertinent data. Until everyone is tested, they don’t know what they’re talking about.
Disagreeing with opinions is one thing. Disagreeing with facts is quite another.
I’d gladly say you are free to go out and self-immolate if such actions didn’t have potentially dire effects on some of your fellow citizens. It sounds like you’re a rugged individualist who doesn’t think anyone else matters, though.
You are on a slippery slope if you believe your opinions are facts and those who disregard your beneficent wisdom will have “dire effects on fellow citizens”. What are you willing to do in order to bring those who refuse to obey you into line? How far will you go in order to protect your fellow citizens from individuals who dare to question authority?
MAC – you know nothing about me. I’ve been socially distancing, working from home, helping my kids with remote school, avoiding all public places except to get groceries/food for my family and then doing so carefully and safely. If people are doing everything we’ve been asked and still managing to get the virus, I think we should know. We may need to take even further precautions. I don’t know….but I sure would like to know! Make an effort to think for yourself before wishing others to go out sacrifice themselves…..
Wow, that is truly frightening! I can’t imagine how that could ever hold up in court. This is an abuse of power and the people must not stand for it. The right to peaceably assemble is recognized in the first amendment. There are no exceptions!
There are lots of exceptions, although most constitution-thumpers don’t really know their constitution.
If you question whether social distancing is working, you aren’t paying attention.
I’d be behind that move Rex, especially since it would put clothes on all those old, wrinkled hippies who are well past their sell by date…
MAC – can you confirm that NONE of the infected people in CA (or anywhere on earth for that matter) were responsibly and safely socially distancing? Instead of repeating your same comment, ad nauseam, do a little critical thinking. I never said it’s not working, I just want to know one simple thing – did anyone do what we’re supposed to be doing and then still get sick? If the answer is yes, then we may need to do more. I’m trying to reach a conclusion that I know you agree with, you’re just having trouble understanding that. I’m saying, if people are still getting sick with all this, we may need to do MORE. On the same hand, if people are still sick after social distancing, maybe it’s not worth it. I’m not a scientist, I don’t know the background of the infected people. I want to know to.
Good luck with that suit Chip. We’ll look forward the SCOTUS review in 2028…
This is a pandemic. It will last until a vaccine is available and massive immunization is done to protect the population. At the moment, there is no vaccine, little testing to know where the spread of infection is going, and no ability to quarantine individuals infected, other than to separate everyone. We are in the dark ages, literally, in our approach to this disease, using the only method available then, staying at home. This will not go away this summer, and hopefully we may return to normal in a year, but even that is unlikely without vaccine or massive testing (which is also unlikely until the administration in Washington changes).
In the U.S. we have, only the most primitive form of infection control, social isolation at home, and masks or personal protective equipment for those that must venture out for critical jobs or food. There is no alternative at this time until we test, or have a vaccine . South Korea stopped the infection spread in a few months through massive testing and quarantining They continue to monitor the virus through testing and quarantine of those infected.
3:39 PM – Ah, yes, the old “if it ain’t perfect, it’s worthless” argument. Are you that naive, or pushing the agenda?
MAC – it’s nothing of the kind, nor is that “joke” even remotely applicable to my comment. It’s really shocking that I have to keep explaining myself. If it’s not working, we may need to do more. I’ve said that 3 times now and apparently, need to say it again for you. We need to know if people are still getting sick despite all these measures. If so, we may need to do MORE than what we’re doing. We will also need to evaluate things. If this isn’t helping at all (as in everyone getting it has been socially distancing), then we need to think about whether all this is worth it. If it won’t help at all, that’s something worth thinking about.
OK, then it’s clear you just aren’t paying attention. And no, what you’re implying isn’t worth thinking about.
Yes, people who are carefully following all the “guidelines” are still getting the virus in many cases.
MAC – why are you unable to address what I’ve been saying with anything more than “you aren’t paying attention?”
Looks like Governor Newsom will be unveiling California’s plan to reduce restrictions. I for one would like to see my friends and family get back to work soon.
“Is working” doesn’t mean squat. Sure it’s helping reduce. But, if people are still getting sick, then we can do MORE to help make it “work.” You’re not looking at the big picture.
Looking at the big picture doesn’t mean squat. See – that settles it.
I was shocked to find out there is a daycare at Vieja Valley elementary school STILL operating with 20 kids a day (2 shifts with 10 each). It doesn’t seem very community conscious.
Remember, distancing doesn’t prevent people from getting the virus. It only delays the inevitable. People are sick and tired of isolation. Once these futile policies are abandoned, life will go back to normal and the virus will resume running its course.
Are people who are socially distancing still getting the virus? I think this would be important to know. And yeah, people are going to start “losing it.” We can’t shut down businesses and activities for months on end with no repercussions!
Meanwhile in the northern hemisphere millions of people are wondering what the heck is wrong with all these people who cannot stay inside their homes for barely a month… You do realize that humans spend a long time indoors in many places in the world? As in many, many months… Oh never mind, this is Edhat, where stable geniuses like Chip of SB are here to proclaim that there’s not thing to worry about. Thanks Chip! We’re really glad you’re here to let us know the truth of the matter. Let’s see. Doctors, experts and scientists or Edhat commentators? Tough decision but I think I’ll stick with the educated experts…
Chip with more nonsense. Social distancing is the only thing that keeps people from getting the virus.
Of course people who are isolating don’t get the virus. You get it from contact with other people. The virus is incapable of slinking around on its own.
Chip is correct Mac. What flattening the curve does is lowers the peak but spreads out the width. Total area under the curve (infections) remains the same, just spread out over a longer period of time so as to not overwhelm the health care capacity. The only thing to keep people from getting the virus would be vaccines and herd immunity, which are not currently options. What also isn’t an option is having the entire country shelter in place until a vaccine is developed.
MAC – I said “distancing,” not “isolating.” Obviously, if a person is completely isolated, they won’t get it. I’m talking about people who still go to the grocery store or on a walk, but keep 6 feet away and wash their hands, etc. I want to know if all this work we’ve been doing and events/schools/games, etc that have been cancelled has been worth it, or are people still getting the virus after practicing “safe” behavior.
SBOBSERVER – one month is one thing, but to continue as we are through the summer will be catastrophic for businesses, the economy, education, etc. One month is easy, but another 3+ months will not be easy. I don’t agree this is overreacting, but I think we should know whether it’s truly working. That’s why I’d like to know if people are still getting it that have been vigilant about social distancing.
I think what Macpuzls is attempting to convey is that even when all the precautions have been strictly followed, not everything is perfect, and therefore we’ve still got new cases coming in. She is saying that by “isolating” it is better to be safe than sorry from the standpoint of health and public safety (in general).
Please take this seriously
Everyone is taking this seriously. Pay attention.
This is fully anecdotal, but one of my best friends in NYC is a very conscientious person. Self-isolating in her home for 10+ days. Had to go for grocery run. Wore a mask (not N95, cloth) and gloves to grocery store she complained was busy and 5 days later came down with what is now confirmed COVID. Boyfriend who never left the apartment is now also sick.
Not everyone. You should see some of the comments on next door
“Peter Lorre?” Take it easy Johnny. 😉
A lot of residents here in SB are having their get togethers in groups having barbeques, partying, close gatherings at the beaches like there is no pandemic. So why is it the numbers of coronavirus keep going up on a daily basis here in the County of SB????
The people you see at the beach believe what they are doing is perfectly reasonable. Other people would criticize you for going to the beach at all. Everyone has different ideas about what “isolation” measures are appropriate and there is no way to make everybody happy. If you are particularly vulnerable to the virus or otherwise concerned about getting it, then don’t leave your house. You can have everything you need delivered and avoid having to be near any other people. The folks you see out interacting with each other also do the work that makes it possible for you to choose to be isolated. I read that people are even volunteering to go out and deliver goods to those who wish to isolate. I think that is a wonderful and thoughtful public service. I do not wish to isolate myself, but I respect the choices of others who wish to do that. I would personally be glad to volunteer my time to deliver goods to help those who want to remain isolated. If you believe that “isolation” works, then I don’t think there is any need to worry about what other people do. You are free to isolate yourself to the extent you feel is appropriate, and others are free to go out and socialize as they feel is appropriate.