By C.B.
Open Houses Cartoon
CBcartoons
April 22, 2022, 7:54 am
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SIt’s simply supply and demand at work. Taking a look at the inventory in the “Upper East” side(ish) portion of SB on Zillow, and there are less than 10 houses for sale. Yeah, homeowners selling right now are going to get multiple offers, and the prices will continue to go up/up/up. No one, and I mean NO ONE, wants houses to sell for less except the buyers. When I bought my first house when working in hi-tech in Silicon Valley, I paid the outrageous price of $210,000 for a 3/1….that “nothingburger” house is now estimated at $1.5. After returning to get additional education I was then able to get a better-paying job, bought the house, returned to SB where I was paid less, sold the SV house, then took more tech night classes at SBCC, got a better paying job….bought/live in a home that I would not
able to purchase today.
Supply…..Demand.
The first one of CB’s cartoons to have a person of color in it (well, there was the image of MLK in the classroom one). Interesting considering SB is about 44% Hispanic. https://datausa.io/profile/geo/santa-barbara-county-ca#demographics
The important thing to watch is the effect of Prop 13. As of 1978 California home owners are taxed on the value a property had when they bought it. If it is ever repealed that will immediately tax many people at many times their current rate, and expedite an exodus out of the state that is already in motion.
I think we have just passed the peak in real estate. As mortgage rates revert to their historical norms, the same monthly payment will buy less and less house in the months ahead. Anyone who has a variable rate mortgage could be in real trouble as their monthly payments are likely to rise dramatically. This may lead to some forced sales. Those who locked in low rates will find they can’t take their cheap mortgage with them and will be stuck in their homes. The result, prices will hold steady or fall, and sales will slow to a trickle.
Realtors are sending out flyers.
There are people who were worried about retirement that now can sell their home here, buy one elsewhere and have plenty of investment income to pay for their retirement.
That is called making an informed decision, but I realize the world would be a much much better and more equal place if their home was confiscated and given to me.
Why stop at rent control?
Lets do sell control as well
Big Ugly Stick: With a little research, you simply need to find a realtor who will take less than the going commission rate. Also, find a homeowner who will sell for the price that you, a fourth-generation local, substantially less than market rate. You can also purchase directly from an owner if they own their home outright, and they will be your lender….they can set the terms, so you might not even need a down payment, and terms could be set for 50 years. To be smart, you’ll need to retain a real0-estate attorney and a title company, which cuts out the middle persons (the realtor, banker, loan officer, etc.). So, 1, 2, 3, and you’re on your way to home ownership….now you have to be able to afford the property tax, maintenance, upkeep, paint, appliances….for that, you’re gonna need some dough.
Chip, I’m gonna be an optimist here and say “you may be right” but do keep in mind that in many areas a large proportion of sales are either to cash buyers (investors mostly) or to REIT’s etc that are looking to park large stacks of investors’ dollars into investments that produce some current income (rent) and long term appreciation. Such buyers may not care so much about mortgage interest.
Real Estate here in my homeland is disgusting right now. There are predatory realtors who constantly send out flyers to homeowners trying to get them to sell. It’s like ambulance chasing. Just disgusting. What has happened to our world? 4 Generations of my family here and we will now NEVER be able to afford a home unless we move out to an undesirable place in the desert. It’s just SICK.