Edhat Staff
Dr. Henning Ansorg presenting to the Board of Supervisors on May 12, 2020
By edhat staff
The Santa Barbara County Public Health Officer stated the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is not simply the flu, but a much more contagious and deadly virus.
Dr. Henning Ansorg gave a presentation to the Board of Supervisors on Tuesday affirming what other scientists and physicians have been saying all along, COVID-19 is different and more dangerous than influenza.
On April 21, Supervisor Peter Adam questioned whether the stay at home order was necessary and requested influenza data after stating COVID-19 deaths were “no worse than the flu.”
Dr. Ansorg came prepared to prove how much worse COVID-19 actually is. He prefaced his presentation by explaining the major differences between influenza reporting data and COVID-19 data.
Data on the flu has not been measured in the way COVID-19 has been. The majority of data is based on surveillance where a physician would say “this is sort of like the flu,” said Dr. Ansorg.
The number of influenza deaths is not measured or lab-confirmed in the way COVID-19 cases are, the flu is only approximated and contains a slew of different pathogens, not just one flu, he said.
According to death certificates, there were seven flu-related deaths reported this year. Dr. Ansorg cautioned this does not mean the flu was confirmed with a lab test, but simply what was stated on the death certificate. Any mention of the flu on a death certificate regardless of lab verification or pre-existing conditions were counted in the report as the flu.
There were seven flu deaths in three months compared to eleven COVID-19 deaths in one month. Influenza has a fatality rate of 0.01% where COVID-19 has a fatality rate of 5.7% in the USA.
Supervisor Adam expressed his suspicion with the numbers stating it’s questionable the last flu-related death was reported on March 18 followed by COVID-19 deaths, asking whether some of the COVID-19 deaths might actually be the flu.
Dr. Ansorg effectively shut him down by stating all deaths, including COVID-19 deaths, were tested for influenza and other viruses, and there was not a single dual diagnosis.
In terms of comparing the number of flu cases to COVID-19 cases, Dr. Ansorg said it’s impossible to compare these as the flu is not a reportable disease. Reportable diseases are diseases considered to be of great public health importance. In the United States, local, state, and national agencies require that these diseases be reported when they are diagnosed by doctors or laboratories.
COVID-19 is considered a reportable disease as are chickenpox, measles, and smallpox. The flu and cold viruses are not considered reportable diseases.
The reproduction number (R0), or how infectious a disease can be, is between 1.2 to 1.4 for the flu whereas COVID-19 is 2.5. Meaning on average, a person with COVID-19 will infect at least two other people, twice as much as the flu.
“I’m not playing [influenza] down but it just doesn’t compare to COVID-19 in terms of fatalities, in terms of reproduction number, meaning how infectious this virus is,” said Dr. Ansorg.
He went on to state that influenza has been around for a very long time and even as the virus mutates from year to year, the public has at least a partial immunity to it which decreases the number of severe illnesses.
“I’ve been a clinician for a quarter of a century for sure and I’ve yet to see, or recall, a lot of patients that have actually died from influenza. I’ve had a fair share of patients that had to be hospitalized and got really ill… COVID-19 definitely gets our attention,” he said.
When Supervisor Joan Hartmann asked what we could expect in the coming months, Dr. Ansorg wasn’t sure but said the outbreak at the Lompoc prison provides an interesting scenario as testing the whole population proves 70% is positive for COVID-19 with the majority being asymptomatic.
“Yes, there is a possibility to get to so-called herd immunity, however, at what cost? That’s the problem just because of the high fatality rate and the very contagiousness of this virus. It’s very very difficult to open the flood gates and just let nature take its course. That is not possible because it is too aggressive,” said Dr. Ansorg.
He concluded by saying COVID-19 is here to stay and at this time it’s unclear if the virus will provide some respite during the warmer season or not.
No s–t, Sherlock. Now waiting to see how all those patrons at the Castle Rock restaurant in Colorado will be feeling in the next two weeks. Thanks, patrons, for volunteering to test the theory that this “flu” virus will miraculously go away without a vaccine. May your rallying cry for freedom and (psuedo) patriotism bolster your immunity. Good luck.
Cannon fodder
The COVIDIOTS will ignore this data just like they’ve ignored all previous data.
It’s unfortunate that Dr. Ansorg was required to report the obvious due to Peter Adam’s conspiracy theory idiocy.
I don’t know why Edhat lets nasty comments calling people idiots to stay up. It’s very childish and does not accomplish anything except to show how foolish they are.
LCP – I’m with you, but at the same time, aren’t our “freedoms” the primary concern these days? Freedom of speech, no matter how useless the speech is, is still paramount, right?
Yup. You are right Sacjon. I stand corrected!
The 5.7% fatality rate stated in the above article is grossly misleading. The fatality rate is the number of deaths divided by the number of cases. Deaths can be measured somewhat accurately, but the number of cases cannot be because most cases are asymptomatic or mild. The denominator that gives that 5.7% fatality rate, the number of cases, is way too low. The outbreak in the prison provides an opportunity to measure the true fatality rate since all the prisoners are being tested and asymptomatic and mild cases can be accurately counted. This article gives the count of cases and deaths at the Lompoc prison complex as of Monday. https://www.govexec.com/management/2020/05/federal-prisons-system-opens-hospital-new-coronavirus-hotspot/165299/ I added up all the inmate and staff cases they listed and got a total of 937. So far, there have been 2 deaths, so the fatality rate is about 0.2%. Once the virus runs its course at the prison, the final case and death count will give us an accurate measurement of the fatality rate. I think we are looking at something well under 1%, not 5.7%.
LCP, like SACJON I feel it’s freedom of speech. As you say, those nasty comments highlight a lack of maturity, so let them wear those comments like an albatross around their necks.
Lets just reopen everything going back to normal life for shits and giggles and see what happens
COOLIO – you first haha! I’m staying the course for at least a little longer. The sooner we run out, the sooner we get another spike and go back to quarantine. Give it some time, we can handle it!
Mr. Adam is guilty of magical thinking like many others of his political persuasion. BTW, that stache has to be harboring some kind funky human pathogens.
How about we open things up and people who want to continue to shelter in place can do so while the people who want to go back to work or go out and enjoy life can do so as well. You know, give the people a choice. The government does not have to act as strict parents. Let people make their own decisions.
What’s a “little longer” going change
Yeah – and then all of those infected folks from LA can come up here – because they know we’re a safe place to visit.
Los Angeles may have a stay at home order through August. We could open SB now – they can come up here to visit and spend their tourist dollars knowing we are a safe community to visit.
Chip is an epidemiologist and a math whiz. You should get your post peer reviewed son.
5:07 – Your philosophy doesn’t work. If the people who “want to go back to work” (as if none of us want a paycheck) go, then get sick and spread it all over, then those who are trying to stay safe are at a much higher risk of infection. What if your housemate or family member needs to stay home due to a medical condition, yet you “want to go back to work?” What then? You move out or tell them sorry, my paycheck is more important that your life? Tell, what do you tell that person?
@5:34 : are you kidding? Please, please say yes. Why on earth would we encourage droves of people to come to our town during a pandemic? Ah yes, for the $$$. How many of your fellow residents need to die so you can get a paycheck? 1? 10? How many??
Stay home if you want to be safe. If not, join the droves of people standing in line at TJs and Ace Hardware, packing the parking lots/beaches at Hendry’s/Ledbetter/etc.
@600: Yes, I was being fa·ce·tious
@600: Yes, I was being facetious
@ 6:07 : the “droves” of people standing in line are doing so BECAUSE those businesses have instituted distancing policies, not that there are tons of people out trying to get sick. And yeah, I AM staying home to avoid getting sick, then spreading it to others who won’t survive the virus. The reason I stay home is because the lives of my family and fellow residents are more important to me than a full paycheck.
Why sugarcoat unambiguous signs of idiocy?
All of you wanting to continue the stay at home must have large bank accounts or jobs unaffected by the stay at home order. NONE OF YOU have yet laid out an idea on how everyone else is going to put food on their table or pay their rent or mortgages. Government handouts? That won’t last long with no taxes coming in. NONE OF YOU are acknowledging the hypocrisy of Gov. Newsom and Hanna-Beths own words “we need to stay at home until a vaccine is available or we reach herd immunity”. Someone please tell how we get to herd immunity if we can’t go out? With Facci and other experts saying a vaccine is year plus away if it even works, how are we supposed to build herd immunity? What if we can’t get a vaccine or herd immunity, stay shut in indefinitely? You’re all acting like elitist that know what’s best for everyone else. Everyone needs to do what’s best themselves and their families. Don’t want to take any risks yourself, perfectly okay with the rest us, you are free to stay home behind your locked door and not come out but NONE OF YOU have the right to deprive others of their life and liberty.
@5:37 Math? How can you possibly solve any math equation without the correct parameters? There is zero idea how many people have been infected. The deaths are not accurate either! If every person that dies is tested, then okay. If they are just assuming, which they are, it is impossible. What happened to it’s all about the science? That’s supposed to be based on facts. Just like math.
Sam the dog , your rant would be a bit more credible if you could at least spell Fauci’s name. This sort of ignorant self-interest is pretty much the core of the manipulated Tea Party crowd. Please consider that in our social contract we have a duty to fellow human beings.
Another wonderful demonstration of a complete lack of understanding of the medical and legal aspects of the pandemic. Just repeating the same old con shibboleths. Luckily, most people recognize it as complete nonsense.
Boom, and there it is ” elitist”. Right-wing watch word.
@SACJON it’s isn’t about wanting to go back to work, many HAVE to go to work. Rather than spending trillions yes, TRILLIONS, on a stimulus that would last a few months why not spend a much smaller amount assisting all those at high risk, elderly, medical conditions etc. into safe stay at home quarantined housing. We can create food delivery programs that safely provide them all the meals they need (and plenty of new jobs). The cost of doing this would be far outweighed by simply starting the economic engine that has powered our county for hundreds of years. That drive and ingenuity created the strongest economic engine the world has ever seen, one that has lead us to amazing prosperity, through world wars, cold wars, and prior epidemics that killed tens of millions more than Covid ever would, even with the “experts” initial worst case scenarios. AND OUR ANSWER TO THIS CRISIS IS TO TURN THAT ENGINE OFF INDEFINITELY!!! THIS IS ABSOLUTELY CRAZY!!!! as crazy as turning the engine of your car off when your battery dies, good luck getting it started again.
SAM – again, a temporary closure of some businesses and events is not, I repeat it is not, a deprivation of our “life and liberty.” That would mean it’s related to a criminal investigation (see the 5th Amendment as you seem to be citing). Now, if you’re trying to stretch into an eminent domain argument, that doesn’t apply here either, as the government is not “taking” any personal or real property. Try as you might, you will not find a constitutional right that is being attacked.
@Sac I get your worry. I have two people with asthma in my family home. We are extremely careful yet I go to the grocery store, gas station, and limited work. The first two which all of us ALL go to are the worst. If you have underlying conditions, stay the F home! You ask ” what do you tell them?” Well for a bunch of us it’s we are all moving out. Sorry, your cell phone is not working, who’s good to stand in line for food? It’s an easy decision for those who don’t have any monetary concerns.
Sam – I agree 100% about the stimulus being a total waste. It could have gone to what you suggest, and/or to help small businesses pay their employees while not being able to work. Total waste.
This is not temporary @6:42. When the governor puts requirements on opening that are impossible to meet the temporary becomes indefinite. And it is an eminent domain issue. If you have a commercially zoned property and a fully licensed restaurant in it, and they government say you can’t operate that restaurant anymore, that IS a government taking. I need to step away, the view of the world many here have is…. call it whatever you want, elitist, “i know whats best for you” whatever, it’s nuts. You don’t think its safe, FINE, stay home and you won’t ever get the virus. I don’t see what your problem with is, just stay home!
The cartoon attached to the article on the Indy site entitled “The Day the Earth Stood Still” is a perfect illustration of these clowns clamoring for easing of the pandemic protocols.
Wow. So all you entitled snowflakes think that the government can just hand everyone money and make it all better? Has anyone taken even a high school econ class? It’s common sense people. Not rocket science, not political. follow the science of economics.
Dr. Ansorg is dead (pun intended) wrong. Just go to the CDC FluView website and read all the many ways in which he is wrong. For example: “for surveillance purposes as a death resulting from a clinically compatible illness that was confirmed to be influenza by an appropriate laboratory diagnostic test.” Every single part of influenza surveillance, from hospital admissions to fatalities is confirmed by laboratory testing, even down to the particular strain and sub type of the virus, by location in the USA, at each and every week. If you plan on viewing the data that confirms that Ansorg is completely wrong, better hurry. The CDC is transitioning to COVID data reporting and the influenza data is becoming more difficult to find. So I took screen shots, just in case.
The Governor is following the Trump Administration’s plan for reopening. It involves lots of testing. Where are those tests. I heard he said that anyone who wanted a test could get one. You would be taking life and liberty if you got someone else sick. The fact is, governors have emergency powers under the 10 Amendment that allow them to take such actions. Trump has emergency powers that he could use to make more tests and masks (which would allow the country to re-open sooner) – but Trump doesn’t use those powers so he can impress his low IQ, low empath neocon friends. Please – get outside all you want. Wear a mask, social distance. If you are looking for work there are plenty of jobs as front line workers available.
SAM – If the government says you need to close your business for a while (this is not permanent no matter how much you bang your keyboard), that is NOT a taking. It would be a taking if they revoked your license, shut you down and took ownership of the property. For eminent domain to apply, the government must take ownership and/or possession of the property. That is NOT happening. If your business gets shut down temporarily for a health violation (eg, rats in the soup) is that a taking? NO. Heck, same scenario, your restaurant is closed by the health dept. (government). You lose so much $$$ from the fine and lack of business that you have to close permanently and sell your shop. Guess what? STILL not a taking. It’s not the government’s fault you were unable to resume business. I get that your mad, but this is NOT a Constitutional matter. Find a new argument.
Boom – “snowflake” alt-right watch word.
GOI – Economist : Half mist and half con.
…”boom” …watch word….
STD hasn’t lost a loved one to COVID. I have. STD hasn’t prayed as a friend’s child was delirious with COVID and had an extended hospital stay. I have. STD you are the elitist.
@6:58 They are at Earl Warren. Free of charge if you don’t have insurance. The fact that you think it’s a good idea for the government to MAKE a business do what they want, for you, says enough.
7:27 – so, very very sorry for your loss.
GET OVER IT You need to have symptoms to get one. Grow up. Part of your President’s reopening plan, a major part – includes expanding testing to reach the latter stages of reopening. Earl Warren can do 132 tests per day. That is not enough. Read more or learn to read and comprehent.
Ah glad I checked in to the comments of this article. The same 3 alt-right trolls who pay a few bucks for the minimal edhat subscription whining about the Constitution and how their rights are being violated. Darwin always wins. Will check back tomorrow.
7:31 I really appreciate that thank you.
“Supervisor Peter Adam”, sounds like an intellectually lazy fool. “I don’t believe it” is something a 2nd grade kid would say. Adults bring well formed, scientific arguments based on data (or a robust model) to the table. Good grief!
@7:32PM: You’re not telling the whole truth, either intentionally or because you need to read more. The county is averaging about 450-500 tests/day. 132 test/day at two locations (SB and SM) as well as around 200/day at Cottage Hospital. There may be other testing locations that are contributing the daily numbers posted on the PHD website, because there’s a lot of fluctuations in their reports.
We need to also consider that we are still learning about this virus. We thought we knew the basic course of Covid-19, but then we found there are some nasty after-effects (kidney and lung damage, etc.) for many who recover from the initial illness. And now we see children getting some bad symptoms quite different from Covid. We don’t know why some people get no symptoms and others, even some with no pre-existing conditions, suffer badly. We don’t have much in the way of effective treatments. And we still have to manage the numbers of sick people so our health care workers don’t get overwhelmed. Seems to me we need to be very cautious about reopening. But I do think we can open a few more stores and businesses, if we do it right.
Sac that is my whole point. If in a certain situation like that then they stay home. But why should the whole population have to stay home when it’s only the people with conditions that this affects most? It’s my health.
@RHS, that social contract at duty to my fellow human beings is exactly what I’m following. The issue on this board today is the flat out refusal to listen to any point of view contrary to their own. Listen, learn, evolve. I’m still waiting for any solution or end game to this situation from any of those that don’t share my viewpoint. Still waiting…. still waiting…. all I’ve received is insults, criticism and negativity. Zero constructive ideas, no open and honest discussion, just criticism from people with no constructive ideas to contribute themselves.
@ 9:08 PM: You must be new around here, because I wrote just yesterday that the County was incredibly slow in rolling out testing for those who need them. How many tests a day do you think we need? With all the complaining you’re doing you must have a number in mind. Do you need one??? Then go get one. No one is stopping you. You’re lying when you say that they’re not for everyone, when it says specifically that asymptomatic, non-risk group, non-responders can get one, you just won’t be a priority so you’ll have to wait. You don’t want to wait, then that’s your problem.
Dr. Ansorg contradicts himself by saying flu deaths are not lab confirmed, but then he said in response to Supervisor Adams that all deaths, including COVID deaths, are tested for flu. So, which is it?
I think we also know the 5.7% COVID death rate is not accurate. No one knows the denominator, since so many COVID cases are asymptomatic.
LSS: That 5.7% mortality is definitely not accurate. How many cases are truly asymptomatic is a truly interesting question. Some people insist there are a large number of asymptomatic cases. Would more testing prove that? Back on April 22 California peaked in deaths/day (115). Around then (April 18) SB County were reporting around 189 test/day, with an infection rate of 18.25%. One week later (April 27), with the same number of test/day being reported, the infection rate dropped to 11.69%. So more tests were done, and it revealed that fewer people actually had SARS-CoV-2 than was thought the week before. This number obviously climbed as Lompoc FCI messed up all our numbers. With an increase in testing in the past week, focused almost exclusively on the FCI, the infection rate jumped up to 16.09% (May 10). Big surprise. But since then the number has lowered to 15.44% (yesterday) and now 15.11% (today) as the FCI outbreak seems to have run it’s course. I’m pretty sure this number will keep falling for a period of time, depending on how people behave during Phase 2 and beyond. The take home lesson is that more testing has not produced an overall trend in more infections. These numbers have probably all been from PCR testing. I was not impressed with the sensitivity and selectivity of the early antibody tests, but the new one from Abbott looks solid. Perhaps that will reveal past infections for which people reported no symptoms. I think we have a long wait until we have accurate numbers for infection and mortality.
Going on my 6th decade here and an entrepreneur for 50 years gives me plenty of “data”.Did you go school to become a civil employee? I don’t really know anyone who WANTED to work in a government job,it just becomes an avenue of last resort when your dreams come down around your head and you are forced to feed and house your family.
When it comes to government,its bureaucratic employees are always behind the curve.
Always.
Takes 3 times as long to finish a project and double the costs because public employees have nothing in the game.
CHICO – teachers work for the government. Cops and firefighters work for the government. Our service men and women work for the government. Are you saying ALL of them finished in the bottom of their class and took the job as a last resort? Yes or no?
Chico, I know of many people that chose to work for the government specifically for the pay, benefits and the early lifetime lucrative pension.
Adam is so lazy. He would rather whine with his buddy Andy Caldwell and just repeat the Fox News mantra. I hope his replacement Nelson is a better supervisor and is at least willing to do his homework. Adam would better serve our County by staying home on the ranch. Oh wait, his ranch products got quite a few people sick a few years ago because of his refusing to follow best practices and adopting his ” I can do anything I want” farming style. He gives the local ag. community a bad name.
The doctor’s comment that flu isn’t a reportable disease is strange considering that the 1957 Pandemic was flu, the 1968 Pandemic was flu and the 2009 Pandemic was flu.
It obviously And definitively doesn’t have a fatality rate of 5.7%. That statement needs to be addressed and corrected immediately as its dangerous misinformation. Assuming he simply misspoke but that is an egregious mistake.
5:07, That’s the Nanny State mentality that so many of our elected officials have these days. They know what is better for us than we do. That is why they have passed so many laws and regulations in an attempt to control our lives and behavior. This entire economic lockdown is just symptomatic of that mind set.
What is the benefit of testing people with no symptoms? Testing people with symptoms is helpful as part of their medical treatment. But testing the general population only tells that, at that point in time, the person either did or did not have the virus. Someone could get tested and the next day be exposed and contract the disease. So testing the general population is basically just a feel-good thing.
Everyone here does realize that people who work for the city,county,state are at the BOTTOM of their graduating class and usually can’t find their ass with both hands,directions and a mirror. This guy here is no savior.Continue to live in fear if that is YOUR path. Stop messing mine up with all your hysterics.
Exposure is key to anyone making thru this and I am sorry for the weak and frail who won’t make it. Seems that most academics have forgotten or never learned about survival of the fittest.
If it makes you pissed off to read this than maybe down deep you know there is only one way thru this.We must think with our heads, not with our hearts this time.
The comments here sound like every out-of-town visitor who stands at the end of the pier trying to convince abyone who will listen, that the compass painted there..is wrong.
Prove it Mr. Chico Berkeley. What data supports this allegation? That is an outrageous slander to characteristic all of our public workers (including teachers, firefighters, nurses, doctors, engineers, etc. ) as bottom of their classes. Prove it Mr. Chico Berkeley. What data supports this allegation?
CHICO – your sentence structure, vocabulary, grammar, and syntax clearly indicate that you, Chico Berkeley, most likely work for the city, county or state.
As of this morning, 5/14 per JHU website, US cases are 1,393,890 and US COVID-19 deaths are 84,239, so I calculate case fatility rate of 6.0%, so yes, he is wrong. It’s worse than the 5.7%.
Yep, every single person who has Covid in the country has been tested and counted. So Yes… good job John!! You can divide! Doesn’t give us a number that is useful in any real capacity as it doesn’t account for every single person who has it but is it asymptotic or just mild enough that they didn’t (or couldn’t get tested)… which they say is 90-95% of people… but yeah… 6% !!!