Edhat Staff
Santa Barbara County Public Health Department (PHD) reports an additional 17 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the county today, April 13. The total number of confirmed cases is 284.
Seven cases [of the new 17 cases] are people incarcerated at the Federal Prison in Lompoc, CA.
One hundred twenty-four people are recovering at home, 40 are recovering in a hospital, 15 of whom are in an Intensive Care Unit (ICU), 109 have fully recovered, and nine are pending an update. Two deaths have been reported.
Please visit Santa Barbara County’s coronavirus web page for other preparedness resources and updates at https://publichealthsbc.org/.
Cottage Health Numbers – April 13, 2020
Below is a status update as of April 13, 2020.
· Cottage Health is caring for a total of 185 patients across all campuses.
· 143 are acute care patients; 230 acute care beds remain available.
· In surge planning, capacity is identified for adding 270 acute care beds.
· Of the 143 patients, 11 patients are on ventilators; 51 ventilators remain available (adult, pediatric and neonatal ventilators)
· Of the 143 patients, 16 are in isolation with COVID-19 symptoms; 13 are confirmed COVID-19 positive.
· Of 16 patients in isolation, 10 patients are in critical care.
· Cottage has collected 1,723 cumulative test samples: 140 resulted in positive, 1,539 resulted in negative, and 44 are pending. In most of these tests, patients did not require hospital admission.
Additional updates:
Cottage CareNow to offer free online visits to community for COVID-19 symptoms
For the health of our community and patients, Cottage CareNow will begin offering free online virtual visits for individuals with COVID-19 symptoms. Individuals with COVID-19 symptoms (fever, cough, shortness of breath) or upper respiratory symptoms (sore throat, runny nose, nasal congestion), can visit cottagehealth.org/carenow for a free initial online diagnosis. This free online visit is for upper respiratory or COVID-19 related conditions.
Food Donations:
Many community businesses have generously offered donations of food for Cottage employees, and we greatly appreciate these efforts to recognize healthcare workers during this time. For the safety of community members and employees, our hospitals can only accept food donations that are scheduled and approved in advance. Businesses offering to donate food for hospital employees are asked to contactKate Greene at k1greene@sbch.org. To ensure safe food handling, prepackaged items and foods prepared in a commercially approved kitchen are welcome when delivered in sealed/closed containers and scheduled through Kate Greene. Food produced in home kitchens or non-commercial settings cannot be accepted.
Other Gifts and Support:
Gifts of flowers for healthcare workers currently cannot be accepted at Cottage hospitals.
Digital cheer cards for patients are available at cottagehealth.org/patients-visitors/cheer-cards/
Financial contributions to the Cottage Emergency Response Fund directly support immediate and emerging needs for patient care, supplies and resources, and support of healthcare workers responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. Information on this fund is at cottagehealth.org/donate/
Update by Santa Barbara Public Health Department
Santa Barbara County Public Health Department (PHD) reports an additional three (3) confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the county today. The total number of confirmed cases is 267.
114 people are recovering at home, 39 are recovering in a hospital, 17 of whom are in an Intensive Care Unit (ICU), 105 have fully recovered, and seven (7) are pending an update. Two (2) deaths have been reported.
Please visit Santa Barbara County’s coronavirus web page for other preparedness resources and updates at https://publichealthsbc.org/.
For general questions about COVID-19 and precautions currently recommended by Santa Barbara County Public Health, residents may call the 2-1-1 Call Center 24 hours a day, 7 days a week by dialing 2-1-1 if calling from within the county; or (800) 400-1572 if calling from outside the area.
Update by Santa Barbara Public Health Department
Santa Barbara County Public Health Department (PHD) reports an additional four confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the county today. The total number of confirmed cases is 264.
One outbreak of COVID-19 has been identified in a congregate living facility in Santa Barbara County at the Federal Correctional Institution in Lompoc, CA. 40 confirmed cases are persons who are incarcerated and 14 are employees.
112 people are recovering at home, 39 are recovering in a hospital, 17 of whom are in an Intensive Care Unit (ICU), 105 have fully recovered, and six are pending an update. Two deaths have been reported.
Please visit Santa Barbara County’s coronavirus web page for other preparedness resources and updates at https://publichealthsbc.org/.
For general questions about COVID-19 and precautions currently recommended by Santa Barbara County Public Health, residents may call the county’s call center at (833) 688-5551.
Santa Barbara County Public Health Department (PHD) reports an additional 17 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the county today. The total number of confirmed cases is 260.
Although most cases of COVID-19 exhibit mild or moderate symptoms, PHD recommends additional measures to prevent exposure among vulnerable people, including the elderly and those with underlying health conditions (such as diabetes, cancer, immunodeficiency, asthma, COPD and others). PHD recommends that residents, especially those who are vulnerable:
- Stay home except for essential tasks. Ensure you have a two-week supply of medication on hand.
- When engaging in essential tasks away from home, remain 6 feet away from others and wear a facial covering.
- Wash your hands with soap and water regularly.
- Avoid touching your eyes, nose, or mouth with unwashed hands.
- Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
- Keep surfaces clean by wiping them down with a household disinfectant,
Information for the 17 new confirmed cases can be found below.
Ages of new confirmed cases reported:
| 0-17 | 0 |
| 18-29 | 2 |
| 30-49 | 9 |
| 50-69 | 3 |
| 70+ | 3 |
Locations of new cases reported:
| South County Unincorporated Area includes communities of Montecito, Summerland and the City of Carpinteria | 0 |
| City of Santa Barbara and the unincorporated area of Mission Canyon | 2 |
| City of Goleta | 0 |
| Community of Isla Vista | 0 |
| Unincorporated Area of the Goleta Valley and Gaviota | 0 |
| Santa Ynez Valley including the Cities of Solvang & Buellton, and the communities of Santa Ynez, Los Alamos, Los Olivos and Ballard | 0 |
| City of Lompoc and the communities of Mission Hills and Vandenberg Village | *11 |
| City of Santa Maria | 4 |
| Community of Orcutt | 0 |
| Unincorporated Areas of Sisquoc, Casmalia, Garey, Cuyama, New Cuyama, and the City of Guadalupe | 0 |
*Six (6) new cases are persons who are incarcerated at the Federal Correctional Institution in Lompoc, CA and is part of the identified outbreak.
Six confirmed new cases are persons who are incarcerated at the Federal Prison in Lompoc. Of the 60 cases included in the outbreak, 46 cases are persons who are incarcerated and 14 cases are employees at the Prison.
122 people are recovering at home, 40 are recovering in a hospital, 18 of whom are in an Intensive Care Unit (ICU), 90 have fully recovered, and six are pending an update. Two deaths have been reported.
Please visit Santa Barbara County’s coronavirus web page for other preparedness resources and updates at https://publichealthsbc.org/.
For general questions about COVID-19 and precautions currently recommended by Santa Barbara County Public Health, residents may call the county’s call center at (833) 688-5551.
Ventura & SLO Counties
Ventura County is reporting 24 new cases with a total of 298. Of the 298 confirmed cases, 177 are actively under quarantine, 111 have recovered, 59 have ever been hospitalized, and there have been 10 deaths. Of the 10 deaths, the ages range from 71 to 89 with 5 males and 5 females.
In San Luis Obispo County, there are 107 confirmed cases. Of the 107 cases, 20 are recovering at home, 83 have fully recovered, 3 are hospitalized, and there’s been 1 death.
COVID-19 Update from Cottage Health — April 10, 2020
Below is a status update as of April 10, 2020.
· Cottage Health is caring for a total of 178 patients across all campuses.
· 133 are acute care patients; 240 acute care beds remain available.
· In surge planning, capacity is identified for adding 270 acute care beds.
· Of the 133 patients, 12 patients are on ventilators; 49 ventilators remain available (adult, pediatric and neonatal ventilators)
· Of the 133 patients, 17 are in isolation with COVID-19 symptoms; 13 are confirmed COVID-19 positive.
· Of 17 patients in isolation, 6 patients are in critical care.
· Cottage has collected 1,595 cumulative test samples: 120 resulted in positive, 1,327 resulted in negative, and 148 are pending. In most of these tests, patients did not require hospital admission.
A Message from Cottage Health to Our Community:
On behalf of our dedicated healthcare workers providing care to those members of our community with COVID-19 and care to those who rely on us for other needs, thank you for the sacrifices you are making to stay home, protect yourselves and others, and flatten the projected patient curve. At Cottage Health, we continue to provide essential hospital care at all of our hospitals as we plan for future increase in COVID-19 patients. We are extremely grateful for the outpouring of community support we’ve received through letters of encouragement, donations of protective equipment, and other contributions. At Cottage Health, our hospitals are open, and physicians and employees are caring for patients around the clock.
Following is an update on activities at Cottage Health:
- COVID-19 Patients – The number of patients at Santa Barbara Cottage Hospital being treated with COVID-19 has been relatively stable over the past 10 days at 15-20 inpatients, roughly half of whom are in critical care. All COVID-19 positive patients are in isolation units with negative air pressure. We report this daily to the county, state, and federal agencies and to the media.
- Professional Healthcare Staff – For several weeks now, physicians, nurses, therapists, and other healthcare workers at Cottage and throughout the county have been on the front lines, day in and out, taking care of patients with COVID-19 and the many others who need our help. These are the heroes of our time. I continue to be inspired by their dedication and their courage.
- Bed Capacity and Surge Planning – Patient census is down significantly as a result of cancelling all non-urgent elective procedures. In recent weeks, Cottage Health has been providing care for an average of 160 inpatients, leaving over 200 beds in the system for immediate response to a COVID-19 surge. In addition, we have a surge plan that could add, by converting conference rooms and other non-traditional patient care space, as many as 270 additional beds and cots. We have already relocated our Eye Center and Infusion Suite to make additional space within Santa Barbara Cottage Hospital for acute care beds. Last month we created dedicated isolation units for care of patients with COVID-19. The centralized point of care helps us conserve protective supplies and equipment for health care workers.
- Personal Protective Equipment – The international shortage of PPE is in the news daily, and assuring protection of patients and staff is a top priority for Cottage Health. Much work has been done not only to procure needed N95 and surgical masks, gowns, gloves, face shields and other protective equipment, but also to identify methods to produce PPE locally and to safely reprocess certain materials. We have had setbacks. A supply of N95s recently delivered from the State disaster cache to hospitals in the county had degraded over time and was unusable. However, with each challenge we keep moving forward. Because of the immediate, expert and innovative response from our local partners including UCSB, local tech companies and many others, we have received our first shipment of locally engineered and produced face shields for caregivers performing the highest risk procedures. More are coming in the weeks ahead.
- COVID-19 Predictive Models – The surge models being projected indicate that we may have a long road ahead. The peak may be many weeks away, and we are working closely with the Santa Barbara County leadership and area hospitals to prepare. The county is leading the effort to identify sites for adding beds outside the hospital walls. Other efforts are underway to reach out to additional healthcare workers to provide support. If a surge happens — and we hope it won’t — the plan will be to keep the most critical patients within the hospital and have capacity at other sites to provide supportive care for the less critically ill.
- Testing – Current laboratory testing capacity allows only for testing of patients meeting certain criteria. These include symptomatic individuals in congregate care facilities, hospitalized patients, and healthcare workers. Our affiliate, Pacific Diagnostic Laboratories, is developing new testing options with rapid turnaround time to further expand the community’s capacity.
- Screening – We are now screening everyone who enters the hospitals, including physicians and employees, for symptoms of illness. All of our employees are now wearing masks in the hospitals whenever they are interacting with the public or in a clinical area. For those in non-clinical areas with lower risk of exposure, the handmade masks our community provided are filling a need, and we are grateful.
- Visitors – Once it became necessary to restrict visitors to the hospitals, we found different ways to make sure patients feel supported and can connect with loved ones outside the hospital. Cameras in our neonatal unit allow families to see their newborns 24/7, and technology is offered for patients who need devices to stay connected to family outside the hospital.
- Telehealth – Many of our medical staff and other care providers are using telemedicine to reduce the number of people entering a patient room. This effort is twofold – to prevent the spread of germs and to preserve much-needed protective equipment and medical supplies for patient care teams. Our virtual platform, Cottage CareNow, provides 24/7 rapid assessment of symptoms for low acuity illnesses, including an initial screening tool for COVID-19.
- Community Support – We thank the community for responding so generously in donating medical supplies at our collection centers. Over 100 individuals and organizations have donated everything from facemasks to gloves to isolation gowns for healthcare workers. We are also grateful to those who have donated funds to support healthcare workers in need of child care and other services. We’ve received numerous requests inquiring how best to support our staff and other emerging needs. We have now created the Cottage Emergency Response Fund. Please direct inquiries to David Dietrich, Vice President for Advancement: ddietric@sbch.org.
- Information – On cottagehealth.org, you can view daily COVID-19 updates as well as videos of clinical updates by medical staff leaders at Cottage.
- Partnerships – The healthcare community in this county is working very closely together. Led by incredibly skilled medical staff leaders, our area hospitals, Sansum Clinic, the Santa Barbara Neighborhood Clinics, and the Santa Barbara Public Health Department are collaborating daily on issues before us and planning for the weeks to come. It is a privilege to work with such talented professionals.
Our hospitals and medical staff leaders have been laser-focused in this window to prepare, doing what we need to do to ensure we can continue to provide care to the community today and in the weeks ahead, and to protect our frontline healthcare workers providing that care. I am grateful to be a part of this community, and for the exceptional team of healthcare professionals at Cottage Health.
The death toll in this country is now at 20,071. Please stay safe and stay home!
Why is no mainstream source talking about building up the immune system?? The City of SB issues a recommendation to get out in the fresh air and sunshine to get exercise, which delighted me. But why aren’t mainstream news sources giving any airtime to taking crucial supplements like Vit.C, D, A & Zinc? Why isn’t the government saying “Get fresh air & sunshine! Get out and exercise! Do the basics to strengthen your immune system! Drink fresh water! Get lots of sleep! Take some vitamins!” NOWHERE do you hear this from the mainstream crap.
There’s no immunity. Please don’t spread nonsense
I’m no longer surprised at people not taking this seriously. Just very disappointed
The death toll is now 20,283
Most of those vitamins are pseudoscience anyways
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-cure-gargle-water.amp.html
Pushing vitamins as a cure for this is incredibly irresponsible and dangerous. There is no cure
Today Saturday April 11th, I was taking a drive with my wife and son, and to our surprise there were not hundreds but thousands of people on Carrillo blvd and at the beach, ward, and the harbor was PACKED!!! it’s no wonder we keep getting about 10 to 20 new cases everyday, we’ve been inside for about 3 weeks now only going to the grocery store and walking around our neighborhood in the evenings, just wanted to go on a drive today, and that’s what we saw, I truly wish there was a higher enforcement on this
LOL!
No one said it was a cure. But it sure is a lot healthier than sitting indoors constantly and worrying yourself to death.
No. It’s not healthy, and I’m worried because people aren’t taking things seriously. We are almost at 21, 000 deaths in this country
I have one. It’s hard to find humor at a time like this
Ah ok. Thanks
2 deaths in Santa Barbara County out of a total population of 446.499.
Both of them had preexisting conditions.
I was talking about the entire country
LC – Thanks for pointing out how well we’re doing because of our social distancing efforts, and the expertise of our wonderful healthcare workers.
Our numbers are so low because they’re hardly testing anyone. They need to test more people so we have more of an accurate representation of who has the virus. Low numbers will cause people to not take it seriously and then we will have a surge of really sick people.
Already I feel like people are taking it less seriously. I feel like I’ve seen a recent surge in people out and about acting like things are normal. No masks. Especially young people. (I am “young” myself.)
I mean, sure… strengthen your immune system. But it’s not going to save you.
how about you apply some critical thought.
our lockdown orders began spreading on march 23rd. it’s been over 2 weeks. during those 2 weeks, we had many people on here complaining of “people not socially distancing”. and yet, today..what’s the story on Noozhawk? a whole… 4 new cases, and they’re not even in SB city. so… where is that surge again? it never came.. why do you think it’s going to explode again?
Wow, Xantus, mentioning critical thinking skills at the same time you demonstrate not using them! The whole reason there has been no large surge is that we are practicing social distancing. That was the point of the exercise. If you eliminate social distancing, you’ll get your surge. Is that what you’re saying you want? It’s hard to tell from your muddled thinking and messaging.
20,000, that’s nothing. Wait until you see how many people die as a result of the “social isolation” policies that have been implemented around the world. These policies will be responsible for widespread starvation, civil unrest, and likely even warfare and all that entails. The last time the unemployment rate was as high as it is now was the late 1930s. Remember what happened next??? Much like the immune system does more damage to the body trying to fight the virus than the virus itself, our society’s attempts to fight the virus will do more harm to humanity than the virus itself.
Lompoc Hospital cannot handle a full blown outbreak at the prison. If this happens, they should re- purpose and re-open the 4 story VAFB hospital (now a clinic). Both the prison and the base are federal institutions. The prisoners should not be allowed to take up valuable hospital beds for area residents. They could use the Air Force personnel to monitor this hospital.
A vacant Sears building in Riverside will be converted into the county’s second temporary hospital to help ease the coronavirus’ strain on local facilities. The 90,000-square-foot building will provide 125 beds, in addition to the 250-bed facility set up last month at the Indio fairgrounds, according to Riverside County public health officials. Is Santa Barbara planning something similar, if needed? The temporary sites are being erected with supplies from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The county expects to run out of space in its hospitals very soon.
These numbers, like the numbers across the state and country, are far from accurate and only represent a small number of those who have the disease and/or who have died from it. If someone has mild symptoms and is told to self-isolate Without being tested and later dies while at home, they are not given a posthumous COVID test, so they don’t even go into the count as a positive case of COVID much less count as a COVID death.
It’s a shame because it’s giving our state and local residents a false sense of security that we aren’t being hit that hard and that we have only a few cases. Without widespread testing, these numbers are a sham and really don’t mean much. The reality is that it has spread widely and is causing more harm than is being tallied in “official” counts.
Here’s a link to an article that interviewed medical staff who say the actual numbers in California are much higher and why:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.buzzfeednews.com/amphtml/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals
Thank you chip. A real comment.
Please stay safe! To quote Schindler’s List :
Oskar Schindler : Look, all you have to do is tell me what it’s worth to you. What’s a person worth to you?
Amon Goeth : No, no, no, no. What’s one worth to you!
Turkey has made significant progress in treating coronavirus patients in the early stages of the disease with the controversial malaria drug hydroxychloroquine, Turkish officials have said.
“Turkey had stockpiled one million units of them before the first case appeared in the country,” Turkish Health Minister Fahrettin Koca said on Tuesday evening in a live broadcast, without specifying the name of the drug.
A senior Turkish official with knowledge of the stockpile told Middle East Eye that the drug was hydroxychloroquine and that it was being sold under the brand name Plaquenil.
Please don’t repeat Turkish govt propaganda
They need to start issuing HCQ to all Lompoc Prison Inmates and Staff now.
Please don’t push medicine that’s been unproven
Don’t get mad at me for having fun because YOU are freaked out. There is nothing wrong with walking or hanging at the beach while maintaining distance. Btw there is no beach on Carrillo blvd. Just cars.
Hcq has not been proven to work
You mean another misinformed comment spouting the new con narrative.
Per Cottage numbers: 120 resulted in positive, 1,327 resulted in negative. Less than 10% who get tested test positive for the virus.
I’d prefer they put all the fools who believe anything that Trump says, let alone follow his advice for using HCQ in prison… It would solve two problems with one solution!
We are at almost 20,000 deaths in this country. Please take this seriously
Easy to get a false sense of security because so far south county has been very lucky as has the Bay area. The horror show going on in Queens New York and throughout that state could have as easily been Los Angeles with spillover into Ventura/Santa Barbara and that could still happen. Everything is quiet, until it isn’t, and once the viral dans macabre commences, it doesn’t stop until it wants to. #socialdistanceisourexistence
In regard to the idea of “boosting” immunity:
=========================================================================
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200408-covid-19-can-boosting-your-immune-system-protect-you
I suspect you meant well, but I would be careful with any stories published on chicagocitywire.com. When I asked my brother in Chicago, he said he’d never heard of it. Googling revealed that site and all its sister websites and papers are run by “Locality Labs” (formerly “Journatic”) headed by Brian Timpone and funded by a political PAC. The Chicago Tribune severed a contract with Timpone after it was discovered to be plagiarizing, fabricating quotes, and making up fake names for authors. Locality was revealed to be a fake local news outfit that was hiring freelance writers nowhere near the communities they “served” ….. as in the Philippines and Africa ….. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Timpone …… https://patch.com/illinois/joliet/fake-newspapers-misleading-will-dupage-county-residents-state-senator ….. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/nov/19/locality-labs-fake-news-local-sites-newspapers ….. https://www.reddit.com/r/illinois/comments/5qitx0/til_governor_rauner_has_created_a_network_of_fake/
California – 3/21 ” During Week 12, 48 new influenza-coded deaths
were identified. To date during the 2019–2020 influenza season, 706
influenza-coded deaths have been identified (Figure 5). The percentage
of deaths coded as influenza during Week 12 was 0.5% compared to 0.8%
during Week 11 (Figure 6).”
CA Covid-19 death toll as of 4/12 is 634
This is from the California (and SB) Health Dept. “Week 12” ended
March 21. Monitoring starts at the end of Sept. “Week 42”, continues
to week 52, and then restarts in January – week 1. It’s supposed to
continue (and always has) until mid-May. This year/season the state
of California decided to stop its reporting 8 weeks early.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2
The above quote is under “Key Points”
Reference points –
Italy’s population – (2019 est.) 60,340,000 , deaths – 19,899 4/12/20
US population – (2019 est.) 328,476,000, deaths – 21,753 4/12/20
UCSB undergrad population – 23,070 (Fall 2018)
Just some numbers….
What’s your point, other than whataboutism? Flu has nothing to do with COVID-19.
Another interesting bit of info out of Illinois: 30% – 50% of patients at a hospital test positive Covid-19 antibodies, but only 10% – 20% have the active virus. The implication is the the virus was already in circulation long before the lock down. With a lot more antibody testing going we’ll see if this trend holds up. I really wonder if Cottage will release what they know on who already has Covid-19 antibodies out of the 1,600 tests they’ve performed. *** https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospital-phlebotomist-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody
Absolutely right. Very easy to get a false sense of security when ones community has relatively low number of cases/death. It’s very foolish to think that if we reopen and the virus is still active that it will not bring us back to square one. The social distancing is working and must be continued until it is safe to return to normalcy whatever that will look like.
Young people have lots of energy and are programed to socialize & find mates. Many live in small spaces +/or have multiple roommates. Their newer immune systems do seem to protect them better–they’re less likely to die of it. They’re more fearless than those with more life experience. Let’s hope they don’t become a disease vector/pool.
Enough with the fudged stats masquerading as facts, Shasta.
What’s the R0 on flu ? R0 on Covid19 without social distancing is almost 6. Exponential spreading. How many flu outbreaks have overwhelmed hospitals ? How many flu outbreaks have caused lack of PPE ? How many flu outbreaks have affected the entire world at one time ? How many flu outbreaks have sent people to ventilators in record numbers ? How many idiots believe the Covid19 is like the flu ? You are one of them
“MACPUZL” my muddled thinking and messaging? that’s hilarious. go back and look at the comments on CV threads here on Edhat for the past 3 weeks.. they’re all still up and saved. notice how many times people complain about “people not social distancing”. (I.E we never had even close to 100% compliance) and yet, here we are…weeks into the shutdown, with only a single digit of “serious cases”. Do you honestly think that if lockdown is announced to be over that suddenly everyone will go running into the streets hugging eachother? That is only one hypothesis, here is another: those who are as worried as you, of course will still keep their distance from people, because you don’t believe it’s largely passed. the rest of us can get on with our lives. you can continue sequestering to your hearts desire, the rest of us can get on with our lives.
Antibody tests like these reported in the article are an important tool for understanding the extent of this virus. Here are two additional links about the importance of these tests *** https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/04/cdc-launches-studies-to-get-more-precise-count-of-undetected-covid-19-cases/ *** https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/27/serological-tests-reveal-immune-coronavirus/ *** Studies like these are also being conducted internationally. We might be surprised to learn that many people have already had this virus, never had symptoms, and are already recovered.
The second worst-case eventuality we should prepare for is that people will only develop imperfect immunity after recovering from the infection. A number of reports are now showing that people might get re-infected, although that is not too common. But humans do manage to develop a reasonable level of immunity against the four other (common) coronaviruses. If one is infected by one of them, one’s prospects of getting it again are greatly reduced. This suggests that it is reasonable to assume that while a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 is close to impossible, herd immunity through infection – although challenging – is still largely viable.
I’m curious to know what the two camps here think about COVID-19 and the “regular flu”. Should we shut down all “non-essential” businesses and the economy and put in place “Stay At Home” orders for the “regular flu” season every time it occurs, since it has been proven to kill 20-60k people in the U.S. every year? Or ignore that concept due to “projected deaths….. could be as high as 1 million (since revised to 60,000)” for COVID-19 if not for extreme measures”? Does one matter more than the other in terms of what kills people and where do we draw the line? I really don’t want statements that say 19 is far more easily transmitted and deadly than seasonal flu – both COVIDS kill people, and mostly for those with compromised health situations. And I hope amidst all this bickering over still-to-be-compiled data and proven facts that it does not distract both America and the world about the incredible and unprecedented harm the Chinese government has caused and what must be done to prevent or severely curtail these type of occurrences in the future. We seem to have a short memory regarding other deadly zoonotic viruses that have emanated from China, such as the Avian Flu and SARS.
@BIGONE: You wrote, “I really don’t want statements that say 19 is far more easily transmitted and deadly than seasonal flu – both COVIDS kill people, and mostly for those with compromised health situations.” They are not both “COVIDS”. Influenza (A, B, and C) and COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) belong to two completely different families. The influenzas belong to the Orthomyxoviridae, and the coronaviruses belong to the Coronaviridae. They’re not even in the same phylum. They’re are actually more different from each other than humans are from frogs.
Carful CSF. It’s not clear in this case whether you could be impugning BO’s ancestry.
The issue is that none of us have immunity to this new coronavirus so it spreads fast, resulting in lots of sickness over a very short period of time. The whole point of the shutdown is to slow down the infection rate so that our hospitals are not overwhelmed. The hope is that by slowing the rate of infection we can properly care for those of us who are hard-hit. What if all you needed was a bit of oxygen, but you died because there was no room at the hospital? Also, to reiterate, influenza and coronavirus are in completely different families.
Chemicalsuperfreak, not sure what your point is here, but thanks for the technical correction. I am not here to dispute the minutiae.
My point is:
Both influenza and COVID-19 can:
Cause fever, sometimes quite high, cough (but usually with mucous in the case of COVID), body aches, fatigue and sometimes vomiting and diarrhea.
Be mild or severe, but rarely fatal, unless the respiratory system is collapsing which noth can cause.
Result in pneumonia
Be spread from person to person through coughing, sneezing or talking, and both can be spread before symptoms appear.
Yes, the flu can be caused by a number of different strains of influenza viruses.
COVID-19 is caused by one virus, as we now know, the new 2019 coronavirus.
And as you know, individuals sometimes get infected with other human coronaviruses, such as 229E, NL63, OC43 and HKU1. In fact, most people get infected with one of these at some point in their life, although rarely lethal.
But your correction on the differences doesn’t address my question(s):
Since both are lethal, do we enact the same measures to curtail one over the other? If your point is that mentioning them in the same questions is like comparing apples and oranges, they both end up with possibly the same result. And do we eventually penalize the Chinese government for this or just let them slide until another virus originates in their country, whether one family of lethal phylum or another?
BIGONE, The minutiae as you put it, are deadly serious to me and what I do for a living. I take this virus seriously and treat it with respect, including its classification and mechanism of infection. You cite a litany of symptoms, which are common to a lot of disorders, and are independent of the etiology. Without understanding the underlying etiology of said symptoms you will not find a cure. At the molecular level, which is my specialty, there are striking differences. Please respect this.
CSF, certainly you are an expert in your field and no disrespect was/is intended. It might interest you that my beloved youngest cousin is a highly recognized and awarded biomedical scientist in antiviral oligonucleotides with various patents attributed to her. She and I have had numerous discussions about COVID-19 and the “minutiae” details I mentioned. But in the questions I am asking everyone, sometimes it might be better to implement the old saying “to see the forest for the trees.” No one has yet addressed concerns about China, what do we do to stem future problems arising from their government, what deaths are directly attributable to the virus itself or instead compounded by underlying conditions, and, importantly, what would we do better or differently in hindsight or in the future, including developing vaccines, and curtailing human rights and freedoms? And do any of us dare to bring up Darwinism in this discussion?
Bigone…You are absolutely, positively misinformed. I don’t know where you are getting your news from but it has been repeatedly proven that comparing Covid19 to the flu is nonsense. Ask yourself…when was the last time the flu completely overwhelmed hospital systems ? I’ll help. NEVER. The R0 value of this virus is almost 6 with no social distancing. And there is no vaccine or medication to take for this virus. Several more facts about the differences are available if you look. So, stop your comparison. This is not the flu
Last year, the CDC published their annual estimate that 20,00 – 60,000 people in the U.S. would die this year of the regular seasonal flu.
U.S. death toll = 20,000.
And your point, other than whataboutism, is?
The gaps in logic here astound me. Where people fail to put together that without the extreme measures put in place, projected deaths in the USA from COVID could be as high as 1+ million. It’s only 60k because of the severe measures we have in place.
7:59: What hospitals are being “completely overwhelmed”? None. I have no idea where you are getting your information from, but it’s probably from the MSM. You haven’t answered any of my questions, either.
BO – When you post a comment with such a glaring demonstration that you are unaware of what’s going on in the world today, it’s really hard to believe you’re not trying out for some sort of sick comedy gig.
Today’s “presidential” briefing:
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52276004
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At least our local briefings contain useful information.
RINCONER, I think you make an excellent point. The death toll is turning out to be comparable to a typical flu season and our reaction is way out of proportion.
BIGONE, YOU NOW HAVE MY COMPLETE INTEREST!!! Please tell me about your beloved youngest cousin’s research in oligonucleotides!!! I wonder if we know each other. No patents to my name, but I’ve published several articles in journals such Biochemistry and PNAS on the subject of oligonucleotides. Due tell, what has she published and what you know??? As far as China, yes, I hope they pay a huge price, because they are 100% responsible for this. I’m with you on that.
Except during a regular flu season we are all out and about functioning normally. Going to movies, concerts, restaurants, bars etc.
Here come the uninformed but unabashed posters with their insane message again – “Social isolation is working to save lives! We’ve gotta stop doing that!”
@MACPUZL – it’s kind of silly the way, the second any of your comments post, there’s a thumbs up….within seconds! You must have quite a fan club that jumps on your every word!
Some people appreciate the pushback against ignorance.
Ehhhh not sure that’s the case, but you do you!
No matter what your politics, you have to be glad that the official predictions that a minimum 100,000 to 250,000 people in the US would perish did not come true. The steps that were taken by Washington and individual state governments definitely reduced the number of lives lost. The country and world will soon open back up again, and we’ve all learned our lesson. Don’t let up people. Keep a positive attitude, and let’s move on. Today I celebrate life, and can breath a bit easier.
This has nothing to do with natural selection. How cruel of you to suggest that vulnerability of age means that we could accept death by a disease. The Spanish Flue of 1918 targeted the young and healthy. Polio targeted children and young adults. Are you suggesting that modern society should accept death by disease as “natural selection”. You could argue that states with governors who do not protect their populations are demonstrating a type of selection, refusal to follow science and common sense results in death.
Chinese propanda that the U.S. used to have a pandemic response that funded labs throughout the world until the funding was taken away in January?. No, that is the fact. The propaganda is the blaming of other countries and world organizations that tried to get the U.S. to prepare for a pandemic starting in January, but the government of the U.S. decided to declare it a “hoax” . That is fact.
The flu does not have a 2-3% kill rate. This is not the flu. Stop comparing it. It is completely noninterchangeable. The death projections for COVID in the USA with zero adjustment to daily life is as high as 1-2 MILLION people. The current strains of flu kill at most .1%? Yes, if the flu mutates and we get a strain with a 2-3% kill rate, you can rest assured we will be taking the same actions as we are taking now with COVID. The difference is we would be farther along in vaccine capabilities. And remember there is a vaccine which at least confers SOME protection against the flu. We have zero vaccines for coronaviruses.
Bigone…None ??? You are insane. And, now I know why. “MSM” is a term used by a certain segment of our population. You don’t think hospitals are having an issue ? Then why have they stopped elective procedures which are their main revenue stream ? Because of “MSM”. NO. Because Covid19 is highly contagious and because they need beds for it. I could give you more examples but you clearly are in the “it’s a flu” camp. Stay there. You know not what you speak of.
The comments about blaming China and how Sars 2 (Covid 19) are the same as the annual flu, repeated over and over are surprising. As numerous writers have tried to inform, this novel virus acts differently and is very deadly. China didn’t know what they had intially , a “novel” virus and worked to contain it. A lab in Wuhan tried to warn the U.S. in January (they were an organization originally funded by the U.S.) but were ignored . Where is the blame and misinformation repeated over and over here, coming from? This won’t get hospitals the needed supplies to treat the ill, get testing done, or quarantine the ill, or even eventually get the economy running. Only facts work when it comes to science, and action.
I agree with you. Kudos to China for everything that they did and continue to do to help everyone in the world. Xiè Xie China!
BS! China knew, lied to the WHO and murdered the whistleblower. Your phrasing is suspicious (“As numerous writers have tried to inform”), so your post is immediately suspicious and sounds like Chinese propaganda.
It would be interesting to see how the recent cleanliness and social distancing has altered the flu numbers. Those numbers would should also be nose diving.
I am by no means an expert, but what you’ve described appears to be natural selection at work. Just think how bad things would be if travel restrictions and social distancing had not been put into place.
“According to Santa Barbara County Public Health, ocean water near streams and drains may have a higher chance of carrying COVID-19 and being infectious.”