LosPadresForest
By the Los Padres Forest Service
Los Padres National Forest officials are cautioning the public that the incoming storm system could bring potentially hazardous conditions across the southern half of the Forest beginning this weekend through next Tuesday. Visitors planning to picnic, hike, hunt, or camp over the next five days are strongly encouraged to monitor weather forecasts and potentially delay their visit until after Hurricane Hilary has passed through the area.
The National Weather Service (NWS) has indicated that a flood watch will go into effect Aug. 20 for portions of the Santa Lucia, Santa Barbara, Ojai and Mt. Pinos Ranger Districts. Forecasters are predicting anywhere from two to 10 inches of rain in addition to 60 mph winds, even though by the time it reaches Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties the hurricane will likely have been downgraded to a tropical storm, according to the NWS.
“While we welcome visitors to enjoy these amazing public lands, we ask forest users at all times of the year to educate themselves and to be prepared for rapidly changing trail, road, and weather conditions,” said Deputy Forest Supervisor Jeanne Dawson. “Before you travel, know the conditions you could encounter and let someone know where you will be and when you will return.”
Many roads and trails are still impacted by the Winter 2023 atmospheric rain events, and conditions could deteriorate rapidly with more rain and wind. Flash flooding can occur in places where it is sunny overhead, so know the weather forecast and monitor conditions in the surrounding area. Prepare to leave before conditions prevent a safe exit. Depending on your location, it may be better to wait until the storm and flooding pass. For the next few days after the storm, please stay off wet and muddy roads to prevent rutting and resource damage.
Visitors who have made reservations at Los Padres concessionaire-managed campgrounds can inquire about a refund or future reservation through Recreation.gov.
For more information, please visit Los Padres National Forest’s website at http://www.fs.usda.gov/lpnf.
What’re the chances they close the entire forest due to the inherent dangers of a forest ?
Nanny mode is now their default.
However, often those who complain about warnings also complain about the cost of rescue. Make up your mind.
820 – exactly. Those same folks complain about both sides of most topics.
So much crying and whining. Republican victim card – par for course.
An amazing event.
I hope people take it seriously.
I’m sure edhat will soon publish the Weather West post about it.
https://weatherwest.com/archives/29462
Flood watch? There is no rain in the forecast.
Rain showers forecasted for Sunday and possibly Monday.
On the subject of rescue, I really like the releases where the government agencies all say, “if you are out there during the storm you run the risk that we may not be able to get to you in a timely fashion. You will be on your own” They sent one of those before Katrina and nobody paid attention to it, but in retrospect, it was a fair warning. “We may not be able to get to you”. So my heart may go out to people, but here in SB, if you go out into the backcountry, put your life in play, accept the consequences. That said, we are far north enough that our impacts may be all sizzle. Be smart, be safe, accept the risks you decide to take and blame no one.
“They sent one of those before Katrina and nobody paid attention to it” Prior to Hurricane Katrina’s landfall, State and local officials did not use the Emergency Alert System (EAS) in Louisiana, Mississippi, or Alabama. A number of evacuation orders were also issued, mostly voluntary. No one predicted levees might collapse below their designed height.
Hurricane Katrina – was that the storm in New Orleans when the white people with clubs wouldn’t allow black people to come across that bridge to purchase food and water?
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
…EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA…
…DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED…
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL…LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.
Dead on about Katrina, GT.
Off the rail GT
No rain? Not tonight, but Sunday Monday yes
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1692421496
The comment on nanny mode was probably aimed at the LPNF for closing improved campgrounds during COVID. One could put together a pretty good science based argument that closure was a counter scientific move at the time and with 20/20 hindsight would be right. The safest place to be during COVID was outdoors, but even though being in fresh circulating air with small amounts of people, also outside seems like a layup, some people still have a hard time wrapping their heads around it.
EDNEY – they also closed them down for 3 months in January due to the heavy rains. Everyone hated that I was suggested that was overkill, especially those here who complained about them closing during COVID. Weird.
Good to see a there are sane heads that agree that neither knee jerk overreactions nor ready-made cell phone rescues are what should be happening. Some don’t get that, and they’ll always react negatively.
“Good to see a there are sane heads that agree that neither knee jerk overreactions nor ready-made cell phone rescues” like when Montecito slid.
From the Mount Shasta Climbing Ranger’s Website:
Do not expect to be rescued. Rather, prevent rescues from happening in the first place, and be prepared to handle rescues within your climbing party should something happen.
Nature sets its own terms, and YOU must judge how much risk you are willing to accept.
https://www.shastaavalanche.org/#/all
I like it Shasta – perfect. Know your limits, use common sense, and don’t EXPECT to be rescued with a call on the iPhone.
And in the case of a flash flood, earthquake, sudden illness or any other unforeseen, yet common injury/disaster, don’t bother the professionals. They don’t wanna help.
Choosing to go rock and/or mountain climbing is very different from a flash flood, sudden illness, earthquake etc. …A climber _may be rescued_ but on setting out on it, one should not count on it. That’s always what I and climbing friends always figured, back before ubiquitous cellphones, and I am glad to see that climbers are given warnings at Shasta. Should be similar at every climbing site. Many if not most of the rescue teams are volunteer-staffed; the forest and parks services have been cut; skilled personnel are limited and we need to count on ourselves to be sensible about what we can do.
It’s not a question of what the professionals “wanna” or “don’t wanna” do, but of what all of us want to pay for – or, in the case of the volunteer search and rescue teams, whether they have the time and personnel available.
Comparing this little rain to Katrina is absurd. Keep watching TV guys!
Yeah good thing no one did compare the two storms, not at all anywhere.