By Sonia Fernandez, UC Santa Barbara
Over the last several years, the residents of Santa Monica, a coastal city on the edge of Los Angeles, saw something neither they, their parents, or perhaps even their grandparents had ever seen before: a three-foot-tall dune system rising gently from the flat, groomed expanse of one of the world’s most famous urban beaches. It’s a six year alliance between sand, wind and vegetation, and, according to UC Santa Barbara researchers, it’s one way to enlist nature to help protect the coast from the impacts of climate change.
“The project was really to assess whether we could naturally grow dunes on a heavily urbanized, mechanically raked beach that had been that way for more than 70 years,” said Karina Johnston, a doctoral student at UCSB’s Marine Science Institute (MSI) and the Bren School for Environmental Science & Management, and lead author on a paper in Frontiers in Marine Science. “Could it work? Could it inform natural solutions to help protect our coastline from sea-level rise?” The short answer: quite possibly.
The threat of sea-level rise has become an issue for all coastal cities around the world as they grapple with warming oceans, more intense storms and flooding events. For heavily populated stretches of coast, such as Santa Monica Beach in Los Angeles, the issue is especially nuanced: City planners have to walk the line between protecting the coast and keeping it available to the millions of visitors it receives each year.
“At the start of the project, considerations were centered around balancing ecology, beach access and the needs of local residents and businesses,” said Shannon Parry, chief sustainability officer for the City of Santa Monica. “Given the popularity of Santa Monica Beach, the project needed to be interactive and accessible.”
Beach grooming (or raking) is a coastal management measure undertaken generations ago to pick up trash, remove seaweed and make the beach more appealing for visitors.
“Those management activities have been in place for decades on urban beaches, so it’s created an institutionalized construct of what a beach should look like,” Johnston said.
Photo Credit: Karina Johnston
Though well-intentioned, the practice of heavily raking the top few inches of sand several times a week and picking up kelp wrack does keep the beach free of debris, but it also flattens the natural landscape of wind-swept dunes held together by natural vegetation, impacts biodiversity and reduces habitat for wildlife. These unnaturally wide stretches of sand have since become the iconic look of southern California beaches, with coastal cities spending millions of dollars each year to maintain it.
But with the growing threats of climate change and sea level rise, people who study and manage California’s urban beaches are taking another look at beach grooming. In collaboration with the City of Santa Monica and The Bay Foundation and other partners, Johnston and MSI researchers Dave Hubbard and Jenifer Dugan in 2016 started a long-term experiment, sectioning off three sides of a 1.2 hectare (about 3 acre) stretch of Santa Monica Beach with sand fencing, and sowing native dune plant seeds (red sand verbena, beach bur, beach salt bush and beach evening primrose). Then they waited.
And waited.
And waited, conducting scientific surveys throughout the study period, and turning to UCLA postdoctoral researcher Kyle Emery to document the long-term results via drone surveys.
“The success of the project was evident on the ground, but the aerial view from the drone provided an entirely different perspective in which the restoration site stood out like an island within a groomed landscape,” Emery said. “The data we collected with the drone surveys allowed us to build digital elevation models and estimate the sand accumulation and increase in elevation of the restoration site relative to the adjacent beach.” Six years after it began, the general elevation across their pilot study area increased by about 0.3 meter (about 1 foot), including a higher foredune ridge with a 0.9 m maximum elevation and 1-m dunes along the perimeter. The accumulation of sand into dune forms was assisted by native vegetation, which trapped sand as it blew into the area, forming hummocks and dunes.
Humans weren’t the only ones who noticed the new landforms; shorebirds, and especially the threatened western snowy plover, had started to make use of the new dune landscape to roost.
Waiting for nature and conducting scientific research was probably the easier job. The collaborators simultaneously undertook a massive information campaign aimed at the local beach community, explaining what the project was for and what they could expect.
“The City of Santa Monica was a fantastic partner,” Johnston said. “They are very forward-thinking about climate change.” City staff dedicated time and effort to sending out mailers, building a website, generating blogs and leveraging social media. They also added informative signs at the site to explain the importance of coastal resilience and set up meetings so the researchers could directly answer any questions from the public.
What’s important to remember, according to the researchers, is that human involvement was also part of the vision. “What we really wanted to do was to let people interact with the site and to not impact recreational opportunities,” Johnston said. Hence, while the area was marked off with signs requesting minimal disturbance, the oceanward side of the plot was unfenced to open it to recreation.
The public response was “incredibly positive,” according to the researchers, due in large part to the access provided for recreation, and to a walkway through the experimental plot. It became so popular that that people would go out of their way to walk through the middle of the site on their way to the water’s edge and take pictures or birdwatch.
Not everyone was enthusiastic about the project from the start. One longtime resident was vocal in her opposition to the project at the beginning of one public comment gathering session.
“We started giving a presentation about why the project was happening, and our goals, and we started showing pictures of other places that had dunes and vegetation along the beaches, and she stands up in the middle of the presentation. I froze: What was she going to say?” Johnston recalled.
“And she turns to the City of Santa Monica and stares at them and says, ‘Why is this project not bigger?’ She became one of our staunchest supporters, and we recognized the important value of community input throughout the process.”
“The Santa Monica Beach Pilot Project is a successful proof of concept for scalable, affordable coastal adaptation solutions that address the risks from climate change and coastal sea level rise,” Parry noted. “Through dedicated public engagement and thoughtful ecological design, the project was able to strike a balance between allowing sensitive natural processes to take place and achieving accessibility for Santa Monica beachgoers and residents.”
For all this effort, however, are the new dunes going to do what everyone hopes they will do?
“The dune building is going faster than the current rate of sea level rise,” Hubbard said. “So that’s really good. You could even have a disturbance and it could rebuild itself and catch up again.”
The last round of winter storms provided some evidence of this resilience, something the researchers hope will buy time as Santa Monica adapts to coastal erosion and climate change. But time, and even bigger storms and wave action will tell whether Nature can rise to the challenge of protecting the urban coast.
“We’re trying to create an alternative vision of what southern California beaches can be and people can choose for themselves what kind of beach they can have.”
Not all groomed beaches will respond to nature-based interventions such as this. Santa Monica Beach is part of a local littoral cell that naturally receives sand cycled in by wave and wind. “This approach is going to be suitable in some areas,” Hubbard said. “It’s not appropriate for other areas that are narrower.”
However, the success of this venture so far is something the scientists hope will inspire other sandy beach researchers and managers to investigate as a possibility for nature-based coastal adaptation. Ideally, field experiments and monitoring should last as long as it takes to gauge factors such as how large dunes can get, whether or not vegetation can re-seed itself and if the dune can self-repair after a significant disturbance. This could take up to a decade.
“One of the highlights of this study is that we actually tracked this project from the beginning and out to more than six years,” Dugan said. Most of the studies they encountered in preparation for this project had done only a few years of monitoring and thus provided incomplete knowledge on the effects of rewilding sections of beach. She suspects that some of these short-term projects could have reported higher levels of response had there been a longer period of monitoring.
“Now we have all this rich information,” she said. “We know which plants really built the dunes, and where the foredune was likely to form on this groomed beach. All these findings can be applied to other coastal dune restoration projects.”
For now, the collaboration will continue to monitor the experimental site, especially as this ongoing El Niño weather cycle brings higher sea levels and bigger waves. More information means more options for adaptation.
“We’re not doing this project in a prescriptive way,” Hubbard said. “We’re trying to create an alternative vision of what southern California beaches can be and people can choose for themselves what kind of beach they can have.”
Research on the study was also conducted by Melodie Grubbs at the Morro Bay Estuary Program.
Dune restoration sounds like a great idea, although there is probably a place for groomed beaches in many areas too. However, sea level has little to do with it. Despite dire claims and predictions, there is no measurable deviation from the long term sea level trend. Here is the NOAA tide gage data for Santa Monica going back to the early 1930s showing no recent change in the long term sea level trend. Tide gages in other locations show the same.
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=9410840
“there is no measurable deviation from the long term sea level trend.” – Again, absolutely false.
“What’s the difference between global and local sea level?
Global sea level trends and relative sea level trends are different measurements. Just as the surface of the Earth is not flat, the surface of the ocean is also not flat—in other words, the sea surface is not changing at the same rate globally. Sea level rise at specific locations may be more or less than the global average due to many local factors: subsidence, upstream flood control, erosion, regional ocean currents, variations in land height, and whether the land is still rebounding from the compressive weight of Ice Age glaciers.” – https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html
See Also:
https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/2974/cant-see-sea-level-rise-youre-looking-in-the-wrong-place/
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-level
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/sea-level-rise-1
One day or another there will be a large storm when the ocean will reclaim the sand with which the dunes were formed.
ChipOfSB: Thanks for the information (link). I’m not sure why anyone would get hysterical over the provided information. I suppose when you say something is “Up” someone is going to say “No, it’s down.” Any reasonable person knows that your comments are well founded, accurate, and for the most part very/very correct. Unfortunately, it appears you have a contrarian following nearly every comment you make and want to turn it into a conversation (Hey, we’re making comments here, so let’s make comments and not make comments about other people not responding to somewhat disingenuous echo-chamber requests for answers/clarifications…..”Prove it!”).
Ok sac, can you provide me the data from any tide gages showing a deviation from long term sea level trends? NOAA has them all over with data going back to the 19th century in some locations such as New York City. If your theory that global sea level is rising at an accelerating rate is correct, then tide gages all over the world must show a recent deviation from long term trends. If you can’t show tide gage data from all over the world deviating from long term trends, then your sea level rise theory is proven false. That’s science. If there is no data that could prove your sea level rise theory false, then it’s not falsifiable and is therefore not science.
Stick to the narrative Chip, leave science out of this.
VOICE – yes, please stick to the FOX narrative and ignore the science that is proving you wrong. Stay in your weird little bubble, we don’t need people like you and CHIP out here holding us back any longer.
Sea level rise isn’t uniform across the globe, nor is sea level itself, you twits. An area of the Indian Ocean is hundreds of feet below global sea level mean because of a gravity anomaly from a rising plume of magma. Currents, prevailing winds, and undersea topography all cause the global rise in sea level to be manifested more in some areas, and some areas actually stay the same or decrease slightly. Armchair experts at denial like you are full of nonsense.
Here’s what’s happening in the real world, outside your social media falsehood bubble:
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level
It’s not my “theory,” it’s the facts based on scientists interpretation of far more than the buoys you’re clinging to.
These is a major gap between the models and the measurements. The models say the sea is rising globally at an accelerating rate, yet nobody can point to tide gage data anywhere in the world showing deviation from long term trends. If the coastal inundation and destruction the models are claiming was real, then it would be reflected by the tide gages.
Some have suggested Santa Monica must be some kind of exception and a recent trend of accelerating sea level rise should be measurable somewhere. Here are some more examples of where there is no measurable change in sea level trends:
Alexandria, Egypt: no change in long term trend, data starts in the 1940s
Sheerness England, no change in long term trend, data starts in the 1830s
Chennai/Madras India: no change in long term trend, data starts in 1910s
Aburatsubo Japan, no change in long term trend, data starts in 1930
Don’t take my word for it, here is a link to NOAA’s website showing tide gages around the world. Check out the data.
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html
Thank you for pointing that out
Nothing is static, beyond a loud one from picnickers.
College Point (campus-yuck)is the same as it was in 1967 when I learned to surf there. If all the predictions were true the slough would be a place to park your sail boat.
There is not much difference other than a lack of sand from a lack of rain.
Go out to Surf beach. The sand bars are huge.
WHY?
Simple hydraulics.
Just more cherry picked and misinterpreted horsepuckey from the usual lineup of armchair clowns.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-24021772
Lol Did you measure the level at Campus Point? Dude that’s like saying you were nice to a black guy, therefore there’s no racism.
What benefit do you folks gain from opposing scientific facts? I mean aside from not having to admit that there’s actually actions you could take to stop it. Ucky though… work/effort to benefit someone other than yourself…. barf!
No, Its just that people like yourself don’t really respect science so what you say means nothing.
All driven by an agenda and racism obviously. .
You haven’t the width or breadth to know anything besides indoctrination and gullibility.
I’m a tree huggin’ dirt worshipper by the way.
No but when you are a local this is wisdom which you don’t own.
You’ve already been shown to be wrong numerous times. Tide gauge data is a minuscule part of sea level change, subject to vagaries of topography, currents, and wind patterns. Your armchair analysis is at odds with the facts.
You’ve cherry picked the few examples that fit your bias. Both satellite measurements and tide gauge measurements along coastlines are affected by the noise introduced by those interactions at the margins, but the overall data set provided by comprehensive measurements using all the instruments we have over the entire expanse of the Earth’s oceans shows an undeniable, accelerating rate of sea level rise.
“I am open to being proven wrong, ” – No you’re not. I and others have provided countless links and cites of evidence that, despite a couple local buoys, the sea level is rising.
How many more times do people need to prove you wrong?
Sac, I provided examples of tide
gages all around the world that show no deviation from their long term trends. We are not talking about a couple of buoys, we are talking about a multitude of measurement stations located in every corner of the world. I provided a link to NOAA’s website where you can see the data for yourself. How can we be experiencing accelerating sea level rise that is not detectable or measurable from the shore anywhere on the planet?
“that is not detectable or measurable from the shore anywhere on the planet?” – according to NOAA, NASA, EPA, ane many others, it IS detectable.
Maybe you should contact them with your findings.
4:37 – don’t bother. VOICE is so far gone from reality and will never, ever, provide any sources or evidence whatsoever to back his outlandish claims. Trust me, just ignore the lies/deflections/whatabouts and other tactics. You’ll drive yourself nuts.
4:29 – They wouldn’t get published, because they would be postulating something that defies the laws of physics. We’ve known CO2 is a greenhouse gas since the 1800s, and we know that human activity cranks out amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere that dwarf all natural sources combined.
Sacjon, you still haven’t learned. If a Phd submits a grant to NOAA for a study showing that other means the CO2 are warming the earth do you think it will get funded? And the studies they do fund, if they show that anthropogenic CO2 releases is not as critical to warming the planet do you think they actually get published?
Voice – provide some evidence. Simple task. Deflection is tiresome.
Oh Sac “prove there is no water in this glass, show evidence!”….. We’ll here’s some reading material below. All this focus on CO2 but no mention of all of mans development and building and driving temperatures. Ever heard of heat islands? Cutting down trees, paving over the land, buildings and AC, and create signfincitaly higher temperatures than what the lands natural state would have been all without any CO2. Per the link below it can increase temperatures over 8%. The “hottest temperatures in 120,000 years” are less than that 8% off of “norms” (though having a “norm” temperature over 120,000 years is irrational). Guess where all these temperature stations your propaganda outlets cite that are “breaking records” are located….cities…
There are so many complex variables impacting our climate is irrational to so assuredly point to one thing, CO2, and more specifically, anthropogenic CO2, as the primary cause https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/pavement/sustainability/articles/pavement_thermal.cfm
Climate science deniers and carbon shills trot out the same tired falsehoods over and over again. Here are just a few of the ones they’ve defecated on us in this comment section.
Climate myth #7:
https://skepticalscience.com/surface-temperature-measurements.htm
Climate myth #25:
https://skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise.htm
Climate myth #47:
https://skepticalscience.com/co2-temperature-correlation.htm
Climate myth #68:
https://skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise-predictions.htm
Climate myth #93:
https://skepticalscience.com/CO2-is-not-the-only-driver-of-climate.htm
Climate myth #125:
https://skepticalscience.com/sea-level-not-rising.htm
And yet, despite your picking at trivia, the rate of increase in temperature tracks the increase in CO2, exactly what radiative forcing from CO2 would do. Funny thing, that.
“Twits”? Is that appropriate to call people names because they don’t agree with you?
No but when you are a local this is wisdom which you don’t have.
Sac @ 3:33, “ignore the science”, you mean ignore “The Science™ ” didn’t covid teach you anything? The Science™ has been wrong about the climate apocalypse the past 50 years and none of their predictions have been accurate, just like with covid, because it isn’t science, it’s The Science™ .
Still on about covid, eh VOICE? Funny, as I’m sitting here with covid but I digress….
Tell you what, you keep believing whatever you want to believe. Just know, you haven’t provided a single source of “science” to counter the facts provided here in multiple links to the EPA, NASA, etc stating that the ocean levels, despite your cherry picked buoys, are indeed on the rise. Show us RELIABLE (not youtube, not Fox, not Newsmax, etc) facts that disprove the widely accepted FACT that ocean levels are rising.
Finally, can you please explain why you and your kind are so vehemently against the idea that humans are contributing to the ill effects on this planet? What good does it do you to do nothing? My theory is you all are too selfish to make any effort to benefit anyone other than yourself (even your own future kin).
6:51 – They’re twits because they’re being willfully ignorant and spreading falsehoods.
I am open to being proven wrong, and I asked if anyone could show tide gage data demonstrating a deviation from long term trends. So far, I have received a lot of down votes and been called a lot of names. However, nobody has provided a link to tide gage data backing up the claims of accelerating sea level rise. If the tide gages can’t detect it anywhere in the world, it’s simply not happening.
You have that correct. The tide gauge data set is the only thing relevant to what happens at the beaches with respect to seal level change.
Satellite measurements are not applicable for determining sea level at the beaches due to interference with the land. That’s a known limitation with the satellite measurements. Therefore the tide gauges are the only data set that matters. The global warming fanatics will dismiss the importance tide gauge data without disclosing the satellite data cannot measure sea level changes at the shore due to the ocean-land interface interference.
That’s why NOAA has to maintain both data sets. You can look at the tide gauge plots from all over the world, some going back more than a century. Failure to accept the importance of the tide gauge data is true science denial.
What, no supporting links to false data from the authoritative science sources at Epoch Times and Zero Hedge?
This figure shows satellite data deterioration of sea level measurement vs distance to the coast. Within 20km from the coast, there’s too much interference with the land to make valid measurements.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-00694-w/figures/1
Satellites are great, but they are their limitations. This particular article discusses how to improve satellite data measurement less than 20km form the coast, but it is still inferior compared to the tide gauges.
Um, you do realize that the coast will eventually have to follow suit? Why do you feel the need to cherry-pick your data so desperately to support your misconceptions?
The usual random internet fools and science deniers can say anything thay want on this board, but what really matters is what the data sets tell us:
https://sealevel.nasa.gov
10:32 – Wow! For once, you speak truth!
Yeah, those darn science deniers following random internet things like….. SB tide gauges. Fools…
“SB tide gauges.” – proof positive that the sea levels aren’t rising anywhere else in the world. Yup, Voice of _________, PhD, (JD too?) has spoken. Can you please have Dr. Basic confirm?
The NOAA, NASA, EPA, Dept of Energy, etc must have their facts wrong. Please, good Scientist and Doctor, please inform them at once! They have it all wrong!
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html
For reference, the Santa Barbara tide gage shows the sea level here rises by about 1 inch every 25 years and that trend has held since the data began in the 1970s. There have been a lot of dramatic predictions, but Santa Barbara is still following this trend, no recent acceleration.
The noisy climate clowns are back, this time with their one-note melody about tidal gauges.
To see what reality is telling us, no matter what we choose to believe, peruse any of these sources:
https://www.vims.edu/newsandevents/topstories/2021/slrc_2020.php
https://www.cisa.gov/topics/critical-infrastructure-security-and-resilience/extreme-weather-and-climate-change/sea-level-rise
https://sealevel.nasa.gov/faq/8/is-the-rate-of-sea-level-rise-increasing/#:~:text=Yes.,(3.4%20millimeters)%20per%20year.
https://sealevel.nasa.gov/understanding-sea-level/by-the-numbers
https://sealevel.nasa.gov/understanding-sea-level/global-sea-level/overview
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-level
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/edu/teach/activity/graphing-sea-level-trends/
https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-indicators/sea-level
Scientific pursuit says that anytime someone says “the science is settled” it is not and should not be.
Currently an overwhelming amount of research might show one thing, but that does not mean it doesn’t ever change:
The discovery of the accelerating expansion of the universe, challenged the science that had held that the expansion of the universe is slowing down due to the force of gravity.
Recent studies have found that the majority of the universe is made up of dark matter and dark energy, which challenges the science that claimed for decades that visible matter is the dominant form of matter in the universe.
The human brain is able to create new neurons even in adult age, this challenges the science that held neurogenesis is limited to early childhood.
What if everyone just accepted these things and had stopped testing, looking? Skeptics perform an invaluable service. Sycophants on the other hand are the people who get us nowhere
6:04 PM – Your knowledge of science is very obviously deficient.
12:55 – great points. I just want to know how they think they benefit from ignoring the science? Do they think they’ll somehow be rewarded? Or is it more that, they don’t want to have to do anything different in their lives that would benefit someone other than “me, me, me?”
Voice you got to stop constantly spinning, deflecting and dodging.
4:26 – And yet, that’s exactly what you are advocating – not working to reduce our impact. Cognitive dissonance much?
Sac, his comments at @6:04 were not deficient. Do you really need “sources” for the claim that the universe is expanding at an accelerated rate and the is made up of mostly dark matter? He also did not claim ocean levels weren’t raising, the claim was there rise has been negligible, but yes, still a rise, and the corresponding tide data was provided. @12:55, were has anyone here said we should continue the status quo? Calling this climate alarmist propaganda for what it isn’t doesn’t mean we should treat the planet like shit and not work to reduce our impact on it.
@1:34 AM – can you please share specifically where Edney’s knowledge of science is deficient?
VOICE – “@1:34 AM – can you please share specifically where Edney’s knowledge of science is deficient?”
I’ll help with that. It’s every single thing he says. Might help you, Edney, CHIP, et al if you actually provided scientific sources for your outlandish claims. You know, like everyone else is here. Where’s your sources? PROVE that the ocean level is not rising. Put up or…. well, you know.
It’s especially ironic that these deniers are trying to shut down study of how we’re affecting the climate by saying we should just continue the status quo, there’s nothing to see or learn here, and what they want to believe is what must be true. And it’s all because of politically motivated garbage pushed into their social media bubbles by the big money carbon fuels industry.
What fools. The middle east is already becoming uninhabitable by humans outdoors during some days in the summer, and that number is increasing. But, we should all just sit around until the death zone becomes the entire planet all the time, because those oil and coal subsidies need to be paid by somebody.
The idea that we should work on protecting habitat against a rising tide is not unlike that of King Cnut who allegedly thought his royal command would stop the tide from coming in. We cannot stop global warming overnight. But we can work to slow it and eventually reverse it by proper and ethical alterations to our energy production and life style. This is where we should put our efforts, not new berms or replacing dying plants.
Sacjon
You can google the three scientific reversals listed for a start?
That right there would show that the bulk of what I wrote is scientific fact.
You are aware that Einstein’s Theory of Relativity is constantly being tested?
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/einsteins-greatest-theory-just-passed-its-most-rigorous-test-yet/#:~:text=Einstein's%20Greatest%20Theory%20Just%20Passed%20Its%20Most%20Rigorous%20Test%20Yet,-The%20MICROSCOPE%20mission&text=Scientists%20have%20demonstrated%20that%20Einstein's,for%20more%20than%20a%20century.
How about this. I stipulate that there is warming, OK? You tell me using your depth of scientific knowledge exactly what percent of that warming and associated ocean rise is anthropogenic?
You can’t. Even if you could, in a year or two it might change. That is OK because that research is ongoing.
Compare skeptic vs. sycophant (you can look up sycophant on your own)
Skepticism in science: Scientific skeptics maintain that empirical investigation of reality leads to the most reliable empirical knowledge, and suggest that the scientific method is best suited to verifying results. Scientific skeptics attempt to evaluate claims based on verifiability and falsifiability; they discourage accepting claims which rely on faith or anecdotal evidence. Carl Sagan emphasized the importance of being able to ask skeptical questions, recognizing fallacious or fraudulent arguments, and considering the validity of an argument rather than simply whether we like the conclusion.
My personal skepticism towards AGW is of the ongoing unsubstantiated by results, claims about what is going to happen because of AGW like this one from March 2000 London Times citing Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia (Premier institution on AGW in UK):
“However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.
From 2010 Here is a view of record snowfall in UK as seen from Space
https://www.universetoday.com/49891/uks-big-snowfall-as-seen-from-space/
Now from Washington Post 1/06/2021 and via ongoing scientific inquiry due to the science not being settled:
“David Robinson, a New Jersey state climatologist and Rutgers University professor, says rising temperatures may actually cause snowstorms to dump more snow.
Snowstorms are complicated. “To get snow, you need moisture and you need subfreezing temperatures,” Robinson says.
Without moisture in the air, there can be no precipitation, rain or snow. Robinson says there is evidence of snowstorms becoming stronger because of the relationship between moisture and precipitation.
“The warmer the air becomes, the more moisture it holds. So, if it’s warming and still cold enough to snow, you can get more snow,” Robinson says.
Thank you to Dr. Obvious Robinson, we have someone who may not think 1.5C of warming is enough to keep the northern latitudes from having freezing air in the winter at the same time as there is moisture. Dr. David Viner may be right in some future particular year, but it remains highly unlikely that an entire generation in the UK will grow up never seeing snow due to influences of AGW.
Final question: Sacjon. Are you OK with a climate accord that lets the worlds greatest polluters to increase their pollution every year, unchecked, no limits until the aimed date of 2030? Before answering note that China hedged there and said it was going to grow emissions unchecked from 2020 to 2030 “aiming” to possibly begin to throttle down emissions in 2030. Follow up question: What are we going to do, what is your plan for the world if we get to2030, 2035, 2040 and China, India, the rest of Asia, Africa are still increasing emissions? 2040 is only 17 years away
An excellent paper discussing sea level measurement in the coastal zone by both satellite altimetry and tide gauges.
Monitoring Sea Level in the Coastal Zone with Satellite Altimetry and Tide Gauges
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10712-016-9392-0
Figures 7 & 8 illustrate the issue of noise in the satellite measurement as a function of distance from the coast.
Actually, ummm due to coastal nuances, the west coast and in particular the SB Coast, sea levels will always stay somewhat lower, east coast of US sea levels somewhat higher, and Alaskan sea levels are predicted to continue to lower substantially. Your team posted the map with the data, I’m just reading it. Why would the coast of Alaska see a retreat in sea levels according to NOAA? Because AGW is melting glaciers and when glaciers retreat, the water levels along that coastline area drop. I’m not lying, its your teams data and science, and I’m not saying it disproves overall sea level rise. People haven’t read or assimilated the data they cling too like an old school religion. You guys just downvoted someone who repeated the data that was linked by your side of the argument. That is funny. Ignorant, but funny
From NOAA
“Unlike Alaska, most of the West Coast was not covered by ice sheets [during the ice age]. So glacial adjustment isn’t affecting these stations. As a result, many of them are experiencing local sea level rise that is close to the global average. This pace means that sea levels along the U.S. West Coast have been rising more slowly than those along the U.S. East Coast. This East Coast-West Coast difference in rates of relative sea level rise is projected to continue in coming decades.”
So no, it won’t eventually follow suit. Neither will Alaska. It will continue to follow the course we already see though. That is where the “(alexblue) Line” and Greenland problem butt up against science. Rudimentary geography lesson. Blue line Greenland with Atlantic Ocean vs. blue line in Santa Barbara with Pacific Ocean. Greenland Atlantic. Blue line on Greenland would recede but probably rise in Netherlands and Hudson Bay. I’ll let you look up why. Water from Greenland is not going to raise the sea levels in Santa Barbara. Glaciers in Alaska on Pacific predicted to cause different issues than Greenland glaciers in Atlantic. Who could have known? Anyone, but certainly not the people at UCSB in 2002 who saw Al Gore’s “Inconvenient Truth” and immediately conflated eastern seaboard and western seaboard rises. Eastern seaboard has 3X the rise of Western seaboard and the scientists seemed to think that should continue everywhere into the foreseeable future. Why not? Because Greenland is in the Atlantic Basin and, it is not Alaska. Greenland is covered with ice and snow. Alaska is covered in forest and tundra and is in the Pacific Basin.
What about Antarctica you say? Well, even the most militant AGW proponents and deniers have to acknowledge that Antarctica average temperature has risen 1C since 1955 and that the interior average is still -71F and the coastal average is still 14F and most of that giant 1C increase has been driven by temperatures on the peninsula.
I wish they had installed that blue line a few years back showing the projected sea level rise. It would have been a great tourist attraction and curiosity for future generations to marvel at, a monument to junk science.
Chip great idea. Now that the Greenland ice sheet has melted we can paint that line and show that the sea level hasn’t risen after all.
Lol.
How about factoring in the amount of silt that would normally be washed down the Santa Ynez River to the ocean, and dredge Gibraltar and Cachuma as needed.