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By Robert Bernstein
For many years it was observed that religion was declining around the world. But in the 1980s on up to the early 2000s some scholars questioned whether this was really happening. Then things got quiet.
University of Tampa sociology professor Ryan Cragun is a numbers guy. He gave a recent talk to the Humanist Society of Santa Barbara and laid out the numbers. He also kindly shared his slides with us for this article.
He has co-authored a new book about this with Isabella Kasselstrand and Phil Zuckerman which will be published by NYU press in about ten months. The working title is “Beyond Doubt: The Secularization of Society”. The book is theory driven. And the core theory is: “Modernization creates problems for religion.”
“Modernization” is about democracy and equality, not just science and technology.
Cragun asked for a show of hands how many people know how a cell phone works. Few hands were raised. But if he asked whether it works on magic or spirits, most people know that is not the case. They may not know how it works, but they know that someone knows and it does not involve magic.
He showed a simulated image of a tsunami headed toward shore. The god Neptune is behind it. Modern societies know that is not true.
He noted three pushback claims regarding secularization:
1. Religion is becoming more prominent in public discourse
2. Some countries are not secularizing
3. Some countries that seemed more secular are becoming more religious
The World Values Survey is publicly available and covers over 70 countries. It covers three Bs: Belief, Behavior, Belonging.
If a person self reports as Catholic, they call you Catholic.
Interestingly, 1% of atheists attend religious meetings on a weekly basis. One can attend and identify without belief.
People might say they are a member of a religion or no religion. But belief in God is a separate thing. 20% of atheists say they believe in God.
He showed some world maps, starting with the rate of Belonging to a religion. A few countries are below 50%: China, Australia, Uruguay, some in western Europe. Some are over 75%. The US is in between.
The next map showed trends in religious Belonging from the 1980s to 2018 or so. A decrease was seen in the US, Canada, Australia, most of South America and most of western Europe except Portugal.
But there is a notable exception of increasing of all three Bs: The area of the former Soviet Union (USSR) and its former satellites.
Behavior means attendance. 40% of Americans say they attend church weekly. But they lie! You would need twice as many churches as exist if that were true! The figure is about 20% based on actual observer counts.
And a trend must consider the starting baseline. Attendance in the former Soviet region was very low to start!
The next map showed belief in God at over 75% in most of the world. But less than 50% in China, some other Asian countries and some of western Europe.
But he went on to show the trend is toward less belief in God in the US, Canada, Australia, most of western Europe and in India.
Cragun concluded that in countries with freedom of religion (and freedom not to have a religion) and with moderate or high levels of development, most countries are secularizing.
“Modernization is the key,” he said.
Regarding the former Soviet region, he talked of “artificial secularization” in the old days. There were 40,000 Orthodox churches in Russia at the time of the Russian Revolution. Most were shut down or destroyed, leaving just 400. The supply side was destroyed and there were no churches for most people to attend. Thousands of clergy were killed or imprisoned.
The demand side was also attacked by threatening would be religious attendees with being sent to insane asylums, prisons or death.
Faced with those threats, how would you answer a survey? You would lie.
He told a story from the 1950s, during the height of Communist repression of religion. A girl named Zoya attends a dance, but her partner Nicholas didn’t show up. So she takes an icon of St Nicholas as her dance partner. She is warned not to do this, but she is defiant. She turns to stone. The legend became widely known. Clearly these Godless Communists were not so Godless.
Some Muslim countries were part of the USSR. The USSR translated the Koran into other languages to ridicule it. This backfired as it gave access to the Koran to people who otherwise would not have it in their native tongue.
USSR officials filled holy water wells with concrete. But people dug them up in the middle of the night. Many churches were rebuilt.
Cragun claims that the former USSR is about where expected now based on its level of modernization.
Just as there is artificial secularization, there is also artificial religiosity in much of the world. A person in Saudi Arabia who realizes they don’t believe in Allah anymore can be charged with “terrorism” and can be imprisoned or killed. People lie in these countries when surveyed. But anonymous surveys can be valuable. An anonymous survey in Iran indicated 50% don’t believe in Allah or God. Even though 98% say they are Muslim.
But, isn’t religion more prominent in the public sphere now? He says the evidence disagrees. Some are just more vocal now.
Mark Regnerus is an assistant professor of sociology at the University of Texas, Austin. He wanted to show that it is bad for children to grow up in a household with same sex parents. He seemed to have a religious agenda. But he based his argument on secular outcomes claims. (His study has been discredited.) Meaning that even religious people resort to secular arguments.
Cragun claims that data on US belief in God is misleading. It depends what is included. The General Social Survey is the gold standard and shows:
4.7% atheist
6.5% agnostic
12.7% believe in a “higher power”
21% believe in God, but have doubts
54% confidently believe in God
In conclusion, he reiterated his central point: Where we see modernization and the freedom to make decisions, there is secularization.
He then took questions.
HSSB President Judy Flattery asked about Putin appearing with Orthodox leaders recently. Cragun noted that many authoritarian governments use nationalism and religion. He guesses Putin is like Trump: Not really a believer, but finds it useful to reach his base.
Daniel Graves asked about the situation in Scandinavia.
Cragun was delighted to talk about the Norwegian Humanist Association, which has over 200,000 members! The largest Humanist organization in the world! In Norway, everyone knows what you mean if you say you are a Humanist. We need to do that in the US, too.
Cragun noted that most non-believers are not militant atheists. He compared it to asking how you feel about ox-drawn carriages. It simply is not part of modern life. Judy Flattery added that “Apatheism” is the name for this attitude of apathy towards the existence or non-existence of God. She shrugged to convey this feeling!
Cragun claims that even evangelicals are not retaining their kids as members. Same with Mormons and Catholics.
Speaking of Mormons, Cragun was asked about his Mormon background. He grew up in a small town in rural Utah where 90% were Mormon. He was one of nine children in his Mormon family and he grew up devout.
He kept a journal as Mormons are supposed to do. He had a couple of short entries as a teen. That Mormonism is either the greatest thing or it is the greatest fraud.
At age 19 he served as a Mormon missionary as required by the religion. He served in Costa Rica and he hated it. Not because of the religion, but because he is an introvert and hated knocking on doors of strangers.
In college he changed his major from pre-med to psychology. He made it through still as a Mormon. But in grad school it all fell apart at age 25. He learned more about empiricism and data. The Book of Mormon falls apart when viewed that way.
Fortunately, he had new friends so he was not so isolated when he lost his Mormon faith. He now identifies as an agnostic, atheist or Humanist.
He was asked how one lives life without religion. Cragun said this concerns him. He likes what has happened in Norway where Humanism is used to promote ethical principles as a matter of official policy.
We don’t do this in the US. People leave religion and lose an ethical system. He likes the Humanist Manifesto. He supports ethical training that asks people to reflect on what they believe rather than having it forced on them.
Cragun noted that churches violate the law with regard to politics. They often tell members who to vote for and raise money for candidates. The non-profit laws are rarely enforced on churches.
He was asked about China compared with the former USSR. Cragun noted that China learned from the mistakes of the USSR. They did not blow up churches. They recognize five legal religions and highly regulate them. It is very difficult to do surveys in China and is skeptical of survey claims there. Government approval is needed. He noted that China was never religious in the western sense. Taoism was dominant before the Revolution and that is not really a religion.
Cragun encouraged people to visit the Norwegian Humanist Association web site:
https://www.human.no/om-oss/norwegian-humanist-association
He also encouraged people to contact him with further questions and to be notified about his forthcoming new book. Here is his web site:
https://www.ryantcragun.com/
