two abbys
Edhat readers discuss the filling up of Lake Cachuma due to recent storms.
By Two Abbys – 9:00 p.m. Monday –
According to the County’s website, the inflow to Lake Cachuma is currently 36,600 cubic feet per second. That means the lake’s stored water is increasing by 0.84 acre feet per second. Another way of looking at the water gain is that the lake level has increased 17 feet since 8 a.m. this morning. That’s surely a bright spot in the midst of this torrential rain. I can’t wait to see how high the lake gets with the inflow which should continue for a good while.
By Cris S. – 8:30 a.m. Tuesday –
Cachuma up 34% in last 24 hours. Was at 700 feet (36.9%) yesterday at 8am, and currently at 732 feet (70.9%). Graph below is pretty telling.
When does GWD remove the drought surcharge??
So we’re in a sustained and severe drought due to the lack of atmospheric river events like we just experienced. Extreme events that can significantly raise our reservoir levels in just a few days. Extreme events that will single handedly give CA a dry year or a wet year. Throughout our severe drought we had a serious lack of these extreme weather events, due to climate change, but climate change is also causing more of these extreme weather events? The climate is certainly changing, but the anthropogenic contribution to that change is significantly overstated and oversimplified, almost to the point of hubris.
You make a good point voice. As recently as a few months ago, people were commenting here about how cachuma would never fill and spill again because of the “new normal” and the “permanent drought” cause by global warming. Now global warming has caused the “extreme” rainfall to fill and spill the lake in a matter of days. Seems like the believers are trying to have it both ways. Global warming (Im not sure they like to call it that anymore) causes hotter temperatures and colder temperatures, it causes glaciers to retreat and to expand, it causes permanent drought and unending rainfall.
Look, it’s raining! Global warming must be a hoax! LOL!
You make a good point 2:45!
VOICE – do you have any scientific evidence (not YouTube videos) that show human activities are not one of the main factors contributing to climate change?
Sac, the climate changed in truly extreme ways before humans existed, it has made extreme changes while humans have been around, and it continues to change now. If you believe humans are responsible for the changes now, that’s fine. However, if you want to reduce the standard of living by exponentially increasing everyone’s utility bills (SoCal gas is more than doubling their rates so watch out for your next bill) then the burden is on you to prove that I’ll destroy the world by setting my thermostat too high, eating meat, and driving for pleasure.
CHIP – “the burden is on you to prove that I’ll destroy the world by setting my thermostat too high, eating meat, and driving for pleasure.” – It already has been, by thousands (if not tens of thousands) of scientists, for the past few decades.
Nice try LOL. Shift the burden of proof on me when I ask for evidence supporting your claim? Hahahaha! Yeah, I’ll exit this one now…. my NY resolution was to avoid banging my head against the wall with you and your buddy.
Hey, you’re the one advocating for the abolishment of modern living standards because you believe the gasses you exhale, which plants need to absorb in order to grow, will destroy life on earth. After the recent rains, I feel confident that I didn’t cause a permanent drought by driving, eating meat, running an air conditioner, or exhaling too much.
“you’re the one advocating for the abolishment of modern living standards because you believe the gasses you exhale” – Nope, I never said that, nor advocated for any abolishment. Yeah, I support a transition to green energy and other things we can do to reduce our gas emissions, but you seem to be confusing me with your fantasy of what a “liberal” is.
Oh wait, I see…. You’re using “Republi-logic” where “some” is the same word as “all” or “none.”
Always “Republican” ref’s we see it…let it go….
BASIC -yeah… you’re right. CHIP – allow me to change that to “Voice ‘n’ Chip-logic.”
There is a difference between climate change, which has been occurring since the earth was formed, where humans influence is just one of many many complex variables, and climate apocalypse, the current ‘narrative’ where rising seas are going to wipe out coastal communities in a decade, we’ll simultaneously have crippling droughts and disastrous storms, which will all destroy humanity as we know it unless we take drastic and immediate action – the consequences of which will significantly increase the cost of living / lower the quality of life for the 99% and further solidify the separation of the “have’s” from the “have nots” (it’s intent). One is based on facts, date and science, the other is based on agenda, power, and propaganda.
Despite what the usual disinformation defecators are posting, the unprecedented rate of climate change that we are experiencing is unequivocally caused by human emissions of CO2.
Their same-old same-old invalid arguments are shown to be falsehoods by climate scientists here:
https://skepticalscience.com/argument.php
Just two months ago: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its U.S. winter outlook. Researchers predict that from December to February 2023, the Golden State will still have to contend with the ongoing drought and won’t see much precipitation. “Drought conditions are now present across approximately 59% of the country, but parts of the Western U.S and southern Great Plains will continue to be the hardest hit this winter,” Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch, NOAA’s CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, said https://ktla.com/news/california/california-expected-to-experience-a-dry-winter-noaa-predicts/#:~:text=The%20National%20Oceanic%20and%20Atmospheric,won't%20see%20much%20precipitation.
NOAA’s climate prediction center can so incredibly off on their prediction just two-three months out, but they’re all so sure on what the climate is going to be like and why it will be that way 5, 10, 15 years into the future? Climate changes.
VOR, yeah, I don’t think anyone can predict this stuff yet. And maybe we never will be able to. Beyond 2 weeks we’re just clueless still as far as weather predictions go. They went with the same prevailing conditions x the past 5 or so years and were completely wrong. No blame, that’s just how mother nature works.
What is happening now is weather. Climate is the long-term effect of weather patterns. The continual warming of our oceans is due to global climate caused by uncontrolled greenhouse gasses, caused by a variety of things, not the least of which is human inhabitation of the planet and the rate at which we have consumed the resources of our planet, tinkering with the delicate balance of why life is prolific on this planet. Weather is part of climate. They are not synonyms.
Not that these climate denier idiots would ever read it, but the September issue of Scientific American has a great article on the evaluation of the threat levels of various atmospheric river conditions, and how they are monitored as they develop. They are so dynamic with all the heat energy we’ve added to the atmosphere that their rapid changes are hard to predict far in advance.
I’ve been saying all along that it was only a matter of time before Cachuma would fill up. I also predict that the water level in Cachuma will go down, down, down during or before the next drought. It is a very simple “prediction”….not a prediction at all I suppose because we live in a desert. I stopped listening to climate alarmists a long time ago when none of their dire warnings came to fruition. Just watch the actions of the major activists like Prince Harry, Al Gore, Ellen, and so on who travel exclusively on private jets, mega yachts, and caravans of SUVs filled with support/security personnel. They sure like to talk the talk, but will never step onboard a Jet Blue or Southwest (or other non-private carrier) flight.
No one prior than a few days ago predicted the weather events we are experiencing now…..no one. Some of you actually believe to your core that these same folks who cannot predict three days or even a couple weeks out are capable of predicting years, multiple years, and decades out. Really? Yes, they really, really, really do…and if YOU don’t, then YOU are the kook who should be cancelled, ostracized, and censored.
If I want to know what the weather is today, I simply look outside. If I want to know what the weather is going to be like tomorrow, I’ll look outside tomorrow. If you want to tell me about the climate in five, ten, twenty, fifty years from now…..talk to the hand!
Sacjon @ 11:43. You’re spinning words around again to fit your argument. And your last sentence, wow, you really believe there are no non-human factors that change our climate and need a scientific study to tell you otherwise? So the earth climate was unchanging until the Industrial Revolution?
“you really believe there are no non-human factors that change our climate” – my bad, that last sentence IS not what I meant. Must have screwed it up in my edits. I meant to say, “You’ve yet to provide ANY evidence that climate change is being caused primarily by factors other than humans related global warming.”
So, you caught me with a typo, good for you. Yet you continue to deflect and dodge the questions, so we are done here.
Again you have it backwards and are asking for “evidence” on the wrong side of the argument. With the thousands plus variables that impact our climate you’re saying 1 (humans) are primarily responsible for its changes. I’m saying all the other variables are primarily responsible for the changing climate. Yet I need “evidence” that the climate changes without humans impact (as it’s been doing for millions of years, billions actually) and you don’t feel the need to show “evidence” that humans are the predominate drivers of changes to our climate. Do you think the climate was stagnant and didn’t change prior to humans, because that is what you’re arguing?
“Do you think the climate was stagnant and didn’t change prior to humans, because that is what you’re arguing?” – No. And no, that’s not what I’m saying. I’m saying it’s worse now and humans are the primary factor. Proven ad nauseum.
“you don’t feel the need to show “evidence” that humans are the predominate drivers of changes to our climate” – Nope, because I already provided links. Ad nauseum.
You have shown nothing. Good day. I’m done, for good this time.
Again, you’re using Voice-logic – “primary” isn’t the same as “only” – the English language.
One thing that we ALLLLLLL can agree on, and that is that all of the so-called professionals who told us to get set for yet another dry and dusty drought year were completely wrong. I, for one, am quite happy that the reservoirs are filling and spilling. So what if the folks who are in charge of predictions were wrong and thank goodness they were. I am a believer in rewarding the folks who make the right predictions, not those who time and time again get it wrong….and boy-oh-boy were they wrong, wrong, and wronger. So, let’s celebrate the lushness of our hills and valleys, and praise be to he rain gods for showering us with so much wonderful (and badly needed) rain!!! Let’s all have a BIG hallelujah!!!
Nice side-stepping and back peddling Sacjon. You are correct that “primary” doesn’t mean “only” but it does mean “more important than anything else; main; chief; foremost, predominant, overriding” which isn’t supported by the links you provided. Yes, humans have increased greenhouse gases, and has led to an ever so slightly warmer planet over the past 100 years, but that warming is not the primary (main, chief, foremost, overriding) factor changing our climate, there is simply too many other important and complex variables at play. Humans are not the primary force making changes to our climate. To think otherwise is equal parts hubris and incompetence.
“there is simply too many other important and complex variables at play. ” – Name one and provide evidence. You talk talk talk talk talk talk talk and refuse to back it up.
Sac, I think you’re making this too complicated. The “extreme” rain we saw in recent days is less extreme than rains that have occurred in the past. If you look at the whether experienced over the last couple thousand years, you can find examples of more extreme weather than anything experienced in living memory. Based on this history, it seems logical to expect “extreme” rain and drought, heat and cold, consistent with what occurred in centuries and millennia past. It is only when viewed in the narrow context of the last 50-100 years that recent weather events can be characterized as extreme. To give a little taste of historical perspective, here is an article about observed extreme weather in california written in 1889. The alarmist argument therefore boils down to, yes this weather is less extreme than other events that occurred in the last 1000 or so years, but humans made it worse than it might have been. Not very compelling
https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/41167825.pdf
Finally….someone who hasn’t lost their grasp on reality….
I am impressed at climate deniers who can look at the increasing cases of drought, fires, floods, and extreme weather events and STILL dig their heads in the sand. Bravo!
MM1970 – I’ve thought a lot about why some are so vehemently opposed to the idea that humans are mostly, if not completely, the cause of increased gases that are causing climate change among other things resulting from the rise in greenhouse gas emissions. There are only a few reasons:
1. They work for the coal/oil/gas industry and truly believe these deadly mass pollutants are innocent of any harm.
2. They’re listening to their brand of politicians and talking heads instead of actual scientists and truly believe that science is “political,” therefore they oppose it on political grounds.
3. They know that to fix it, it will require some effort on their part. We all know there’s a certain group out there who despises doing anything to help others (eg, homeless, welfare, college debt, medical insurance, immigrants, etc).
So, they’re either oil shills, science-deniers/conspiracy theorists, or lazy/selfish. Not sure there’s any other reason to be so passionately against the notion that humans have been causing greenhouse gas emissions to rise since the Industrial Age.
What is a “climate denier”? I don’t think I see any here. There are “climate apocoyse deniers”, like me, who can simultaneously believe we should minimize our impact on the planet and that the world isn’t going to end unless we take drastic and immediate action. I “deny” inaccurate statements like yours about “increasing cases of drought, fires, floods, and extreme weather events”, increase in reporting for sure. NOAA has shown that anthropogenic climate change has actually reduced cases of tropical cyclones not increased them as you state. It’s the lack of extreme weather events like this recent atmospheric river, that were causing our sustained drought.
Ah, conflating multiple and inaccurate things there Sacjon. “humans are mostly, if not completely, the cause of increased gases that are causing climate change among other things resulting from the rise in greenhouse gas emissions.” Not quite sure what you mean there but no one has opposed the idea that humans have released greenhouse gases. What they oppose is that idea humans contribution is “mostly”, and certainly not “completely” resposbnile for our changing climate. We are but one of a plethora of complex variables that impact our climate. To think that humans might be “completely responsible” for changes to our climate is pure propaganda and devoid of any logic or scientific foundation.
“To think that humans might be “completely responsible” for changes to our climate is pure propaganda and devoid of any logic or scientific foundation.” – Yet you admit humans are the cause of increased greenhouse gas emissions that cause things like climate change.
Say what you want, I’m not going to argue with someone who thinks NASA scientists are just making up “propaganda” lol! https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/
I’m not sure why you linked to that NASA site as what it says is not in dispute here by anyone. No one is denying that humans have increase green houses gases and that has had an impact (albeit small impact) on average temperatures on Earth. What is in dispute is it’s actual impact on our climate, particularly to the “weather” events people keep pointing to as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. You said humans are “mostly, if not completely” the cause of climate change. This is false and not backed up by NASA, NOAA, etc.
“This is false and not backed up by NASA, NOAA, etc.” – LOL that is false. It IS backed by NASA and NOAA scientists. Did you even read the headline in the NASA site? — “Human activities are driving the global warming trend observed since the mid-20th century.”
Also…..
“Human Activities Are the Primary Driver of Recent Global Temperature Rise” – https://science2017.globalchange.gov/downloads/CSSR2017_FullReport.pdf —- a report WRITTEN by NASA, NOAA and many other scientists and experts.
“You said humans are “mostly, if not completely” the cause of climate change.” – No I didn’t. Learn to read. I said we’re “the cause of increased gases that are causing climate change.”
“Global climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades will depend primarily on the amount of greenhouse (heat-trapping) gases emitted globally and on the remaining uncertainty in the sensitivity of Earth’s climate to those emissions (very high confidence).” (https://science2017.globalchange.gov/downloads/CSSR2017_FullReport.pdf) —- this means that greenhouse gas emission (human caused, as you admit) is the primary factor in climate change.
Complain all you want, but you’re wrong. You’ve yet to provide ANY evidence that climate change is being caused by factors other than humans related global warming.
You are spot on Babycakes! What really upsets me is these same people who have consistently made inaccurate predictions have implemented policies that are causing our fuel and utility bills to skyrocket. Natural gas bills are going to more than double this month! And all in the name of averting “global warming” and “permanent drought.” We just had the coldest and wettest winter in a very long time! It’s simply not acceptable for these limo and private jet riding politicians/profiteers to enrich themselves peddling climate alarmism while putting the squeeze on the rest of us with higher bills and shortages. When viewed in the context of what has taken place in the last couple thousand years, there is nothing unusual or extreme about the weather that has occurred in living memory. It’s time to stop the alarmism and focus on increasing the standard of living for everyday people and addresses by real environmental and pollution problems.
CHIP – what do you think “real environmental and pollution problems” are?
You’ve said before you believe oil/gas is cleaner for the environment than wind and solar, so I’m honestly curious what you consider to be problems?
I need to provide evidence to proved their are many factors other than humans that impact our climate? That’s like saying I need to provide evidence the sky is blue and water is wet. With you’re logic, the climate would have been stagnate and unchanging until humans came around and learned how to burn things. But to humor you, are you aware the biggest determining factor in Atlantic hurricane development is how windy it is in Africa. Specifically how much Saharan dust is blow over across the Atlantic. What determines whether it will be a busy or slow hurricane season is not how much greenhouse gases are in the air, or global temperatures, but how much desert dust from Africa is in the air. Source: middle school science class
“I need to provide evidence to proved their are many factors other than humans that impact our climate?” – No, nice try though. You need to show that the PRIMARY causes of global warming and climate change are something OTHER than humans. That’s your argument, prove it. Source: 6th grade English class.
What’s this, NOAA says there were NO records broken in 2022? But climate change… extreme weather…. global warming… getting so bad… society at risk…. more extreme events that are getting more extreme and more frequent cuz climate change…. yet no records for heat, cold, rain, wind, pressure, snow….. according to the NOAA at least. Hmmm….. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/scec/records/all/all
Not only do these denier fools practice willful ignorance with regards to the difference between weather and climate, they also ignore the difference between gradual changes over millennia (in the past) and rapid changes over decades (now).
https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
Yeah, crazy how animals are smart enough to respond to human causes climate change by moving to more comfortable environments.
Employing beavers to mitigate drought impacts by slowing river and stream runoff to allow for groundwater recharge is really fascinating, check it out.
IVEGOTBIRNAMWOOD – (chuckling out loud) – so, what’s the point of the link? Are you suggesting that beavers are to blame for climate change?
Why is it so hot? Climate change. Why is it so cold? climate change. Why are we in a drought? climate change. YAY we are saved it rained and Cachuma is full! “climate change” has been happening since the beginning of time…..stop watching the news and taking your directions from hollywood and crazy demented 40+ politicians!
STEVE O – should we ignore NASA scientists as well?
SACJON nailed it.